Warehouse fresh · 2026-05-04 08:09 UTC
Model R̂ max 1.010
ESS min 644
Divergences 0
Trained 2026-05-04 08:48 UTC

Today's Games

Per-game cards for 2026 regular-season games scheduled today. Each card shows the matchup, the model's home-win probability, both starting pitchers' season and last-3-starts form, the projected lineups based on each team's most recent batting order, and bullpen availability.

NYM @ COL
21:40 UTC · Coors Field
COL win probability
24.8%
predicted: 4.2 – 5.7

NYM starter

TBD

COL starter

Tomoyuki Sugano RHP
2.84 ERA · 1.17 WHIP · K/9 6.0
last 3: 3.60 ERA over 15.0 IP

NYM projected lineup

  1. 1. Bo Bichette R 0.243/0.280/0.321 2 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Juan Soto L 0.314/0.415/0.500 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. MJ Melendez L 0.324/0.395/0.588 2 HR / 6 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Brett Baty L 0.211/0.280/0.305 1 HR / 12 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Marcus Semien R 0.213/0.265/0.279 1 HR / 11 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Carson Benge L 0.186/0.255/0.278 2 HR / 7 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Mark Vientos R 0.250/0.297/0.440 4 HR / 12 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Tyrone Taylor R 0.200/0.226/0.317 2 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Luis Torrens R 0.182/0.206/0.242 0 HR / 4 RBI L30 0 HR

COL projected lineup

  1. 1. Edouard Julien L 0.276/0.376/0.402 2 HR / 12 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Mickey Moniak L 0.327/0.374/0.724 11 HR / 21 RBI L30 11 HR
  3. 3. Hunter Goodman R 0.240/0.313/0.521 9 HR / 15 RBI L30 8 HR
  4. 4. TJ Rumfield L 0.268/0.329/0.425 4 HR / 19 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Troy Johnston L 0.321/0.385/0.453 2 HR / 16 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Willi Castro S 0.244/0.306/0.333 1 HR / 11 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Brett Sullivan L 0.269/0.309/0.385 0 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Ezequiel Tovar R 0.197/0.250/0.287 1 HR / 9 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Jake McCarthy L 0.262/0.343/0.410 0 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR

NYM bullpen

  • Tobias Myers R fresh 2d rest

COL bullpen

  • Jimmy Herget R fresh 5d rest
  • Juan Mejia R fresh 3d rest
  • Brennan Bernardino L fresh 2d rest
  • Chase Dollander R fresh 2d rest
TOR @ TB
22:40 UTC · Tropicana Field · division game
TB win probability
45.2%
predicted: 4.5 – 4.3

TOR starter

TBD

TB starter

Nick Martinez RHP
1.70 ERA · 1.00 WHIP · K/9 5.8
last 3: 1.33 ERA over 20.3 IP

TOR projected lineup

  1. 1. Yohendrick Piñango L 0.462/0.500/0.462 0 HR / 3 RBI L30 0 HR
  2. 2. Kazuma Okamoto R 0.236/0.319/0.472 9 HR / 22 RBI L30 7 HR
  3. 3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 0.333/0.421/0.437 2 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Jesús Sánchez L 0.250/0.289/0.404 4 HR / 15 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Lenyn Sosa R 0.240/0.237/0.360 1 HR / 9 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Daulton Varsho L 0.243/0.317/0.414 4 HR / 9 RBI L30 4 HR
  7. 7. Ernie Clement R 0.291/0.317/0.410 1 HR / 9 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Andrés Giménez L 0.259/0.288/0.411 3 HR / 16 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Tyler Heineman S 0.176/0.222/0.176 0 HR / 2 RBI L30 0 HR

TB projected lineup

  1. 1. Chandler Simpson L 0.300/0.331/0.338 0 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR
  2. 2. Junior Caminero R 0.264/0.350/0.504 9 HR / 16 RBI L30 9 HR
  3. 3. Jonathan Aranda L 0.252/0.352/0.462 7 HR / 28 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Ryan Vilade R 0.275/0.326/0.325 0 HR / 6 RBI L30 0 HR
  5. 5. Jake Fraley L 0.239/0.311/0.418 2 HR / 5 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Ben Williamson R 0.244/0.316/0.326 0 HR / 10 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Cedric Mullins L 0.127/0.189/0.225 2 HR / 9 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Nick Fortes R 0.262/0.303/0.357 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Taylor Walls S 0.191/0.295/0.235 0 HR / 4 RBI L30 0 HR

TOR bullpen

  • Mason Fluharty L fresh 2d rest
  • Braydon Fisher R taxed 1d rest

TB bullpen

  • Mason Englert R fresh 15d rest
  • Cole Sulser R fresh 3d rest
  • Jesse Scholtens R fresh 2d rest
  • Griffin Jax R fresh 2d rest
BOS @ DET
22:40 UTC · Comerica Park
DET win probability
44.7%
predicted: 4.3 – 4.3

BOS starter

Payton Tolle LHP
3.38 ERA · 1.03 WHIP · K/9 12.7
last 3: 3.38 ERA over 10.7 IP

DET starter

Tarik Skubal LHP
2.70 ERA · 0.95 WHIP · K/9 9.3
last 3: 3.32 ERA over 19.0 IP

BOS projected lineup

  1. 1. Jarren Duran L 0.186/0.246/0.310 3 HR / 15 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Willson Contreras R 0.280/0.387/0.492 7 HR / 21 RBI L30 7 HR
  3. 3. Roman Anthony L 0.231/0.357/0.324 1 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR
  4. 4. Wilyer Abreu L 0.298/0.379/0.460 4 HR / 14 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Andruw Monasterio R 0.217/0.294/0.370 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Marcelo Mayer L 0.244/0.313/0.349 1 HR / 7 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Ceddanne Rafaela R 0.255/0.325/0.358 1 HR / 10 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Carlos Narváez R 0.229/0.260/0.357 2 HR / 3 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Caleb Durbin R 0.165/0.254/0.248 1 HR / 11 RBI L30 1 HR

DET projected lineup

  1. 1. Kevin McGonigle L 0.315/0.407/0.477 2 HR / 16 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Matt Vierling R 0.214/0.269/0.357 1 HR / 13 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Colt Keith L 0.313/0.346/0.384 0 HR / 6 RBI L30 0 HR
  4. 4. Riley Greene L 0.290/0.393/0.452 4 HR / 19 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Spencer Torkelson R 0.225/0.348/0.441 6 HR / 14 RBI L30 6 HR
  6. 6. Kerry Carpenter L 0.213/0.303/0.468 6 HR / 17 RBI L30 6 HR
  7. 7. Wenceel Pérez S 0.161/0.230/0.286 2 HR / 5 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Hao-Yu Lee R 0.212/0.278/0.364 1 HR / 5 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Jake Rogers R 0.182/0.216/0.303 0 HR / 4 RBI L30 0 HR

BOS bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

DET bullpen

  • Tyler Holton L taxed 1d rest
PHI @ MIA
22:40 UTC · loanDepot park · division game
MIA win probability
37.3%
predicted: 4.2 – 4.7

PHI starter

Aaron Nola RHP
6.03 ERA · 1.56 WHIP · K/9 10.1
last 3: 9.00 ERA over 14.0 IP

MIA starter

Janson Junk RHP
3.00 ERA · 1.06 WHIP · K/9 5.7
last 3: 1.65 ERA over 16.3 IP

PHI projected lineup

  1. 1. Trea Turner R 0.243/0.304/0.375 4 HR / 11 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Kyle Schwarber L 0.220/0.368/0.553 11 HR / 20 RBI L30 9 HR
  3. 3. Bryce Harper L 0.256/0.352/0.480 6 HR / 19 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Alec Bohm R 0.162/0.229/0.214 1 HR / 15 RBI L30 0 HR
  5. 5. Brandon Marsh L 0.311/0.342/0.491 4 HR / 18 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. J.T. Realmuto R 0.250/0.324/0.333 1 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Bryson Stott L 0.206/0.260/0.330 2 HR / 11 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Felix Reyes R 0.143/0.143/0.286 1 HR / 1 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Justin Crawford L 0.268/0.336/0.371 0 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR

MIA projected lineup

  1. 1. Otto Lopez R 0.341/0.376/0.500 3 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Agustín Ramírez R 0.230/0.318/0.345 2 HR / 14 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Kyle Stowers L 0.217/0.321/0.283 0 HR / 1 RBI L30 0 HR
  4. 4. Connor Norby R 0.238/0.339/0.396 3 HR / 11 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Xavier Edwards S 0.336/0.424/0.472 2 HR / 11 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Christopher Morel R 0.273/0.385/0.273 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Leo Jiménez R 0.188/0.381/0.188 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Esteury Ruiz R 0.286/0.286/0.786 2 HR / 3 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Javier Sanoja R 0.304/0.368/0.362 0 HR / 10 RBI L30 0 HR

PHI bullpen

  • Zach Pop R fresh 22d rest
  • Kyle Backhus L fresh 9d rest
  • Tim Mayza L fresh 4d rest

MIA bullpen

  • Pete Fairbanks R fresh 7d rest
BAL @ NYY
23:05 UTC · Yankee Stadium · division game
NYY win probability
55.3%
predicted: 5.1 – 4.2

BAL starter

Shane Baz RHP
4.50 ERA · 1.50 WHIP · K/9 7.7
last 3: 4.50 ERA over 18.0 IP

NYY starter

Cam Schlittler RHP
1.51 ERA · 0.74 WHIP · K/9 10.6
last 3: 0.45 ERA over 20.0 IP

BAL projected lineup

  1. 1. Taylor Ward R 0.288/0.423/0.416 1 HR / 12 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Adley Rutschman S 0.296/0.342/0.549 4 HR / 17 RBI L30 4 HR
  3. 3. Pete Alonso R 0.214/0.322/0.421 6 HR / 15 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Tyler O'Neill R 0.205/0.352/0.273 1 HR / 4 RBI L30 0 HR
  5. 5. Coby Mayo R 0.165/0.234/0.306 3 HR / 12 RBI L30 3 HR
  6. 6. Leody Taveras S 0.278/0.388/0.431 2 HR / 18 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Jeremiah Jackson R 0.259/0.277/0.454 6 HR / 24 RBI L30 6 HR
  8. 8. Weston Wilson R 0.294/0.429/0.353 0 HR / 2 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Blaze Alexander R 0.192/0.253/0.219 0 HR / 2 RBI L30 0 HR

NYY projected lineup

  1. 1. Trent Grisham L 0.162/0.297/0.352 5 HR / 19 RBI L30 5 HR
  2. 2. Ben Rice L 0.343/0.455/0.759 12 HR / 27 RBI L30 11 HR
  3. 3. Aaron Judge R 0.264/0.403/0.628 13 HR / 23 RBI L30 11 HR
  4. 4. Cody Bellinger L 0.275/0.373/0.483 5 HR / 20 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 0.212/0.299/0.331 3 HR / 12 RBI L30 3 HR
  6. 6. Jasson Domínguez S 0.278/0.316/0.556 1 HR / 3 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Austin Wells L 0.203/0.333/0.329 3 HR / 5 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Ryan McMahon L 0.200/0.289/0.300 2 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. José Caballero R 0.259/0.306/0.405 4 HR / 12 RBI L30 4 HR

BAL bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

NYY bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

CLE @ KC
23:40 UTC · Kauffman Stadium · division game
KC win probability
43.2%
predicted: 4.0 – 4.0

CLE starter

Tanner Bibee RHP
4.08 ERA · 1.44 WHIP · K/9 8.2
last 3: 1.59 ERA over 17.0 IP

KC starter

Michael Wacha RHP
3.13 ERA · 1.13 WHIP · K/9 8.0
last 3: 6.61 ERA over 16.3 IP

CLE projected lineup

  1. 1. Steven Kwan L 0.224/0.319/0.288 1 HR / 9 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Chase DeLauter L 0.304/0.392/0.554 6 HR / 21 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. José Ramírez S 0.217/0.340/0.419 6 HR / 14 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Kyle Manzardo L 0.200/0.280/0.284 2 HR / 10 RBI L30 2 HR
  5. 5. Daniel Schneemann L 0.298/0.366/0.524 4 HR / 14 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Travis Bazzana L 0.188/0.409/0.188 0 HR / 2 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Petey Halpin L 0.000/0.000/0.000 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Austin Hedges R 0.310/0.348/0.476 1 HR / 3 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Brayan Rocchio S 0.268/0.344/0.384 3 HR / 19 RBI L30 3 HR

KC projected lineup

  1. 1. Maikel Garcia R 0.270/0.333/0.429 3 HR / 13 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Bobby Witt Jr. R 0.281/0.357/0.407 2 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Vinnie Pasquantino L 0.188/0.283/0.350 4 HR / 16 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Salvador Perez R 0.206/0.245/0.359 5 HR / 13 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Carter Jensen L 0.230/0.322/0.430 6 HR / 17 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Jac Caglianone L 0.255/0.336/0.418 3 HR / 7 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Isaac Collins S 0.236/0.343/0.337 2 HR / 11 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Michael Massey L 0.194/0.224/0.323 1 HR / 7 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Kyle Isbel L 0.289/0.352/0.446 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR

CLE bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

KC bullpen

  • Luinder Avila R fresh 2d rest
CIN @ CHC
23:40 UTC · Wrigley Field · division game
CHC win probability
57.6%
predicted: 4.8 – 4.0

CIN starter

TBD

CHC starter

Edward Cabrera RHP
3.06 ERA · 1.19 WHIP · K/9 7.4
last 3: 4.34 ERA over 18.7 IP

CIN projected lineup

  1. 1. TJ Friedl L 0.203/0.282/0.305 2 HR / 7 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. JJ Bleday L 0.333/0.500/0.800 2 HR / 3 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Elly De La Cruz S 0.271/0.349/0.541 10 HR / 25 RBI L30 8 HR
  4. 4. Sal Stewart R 0.252/0.340/0.512 9 HR / 29 RBI L30 7 HR
  5. 5. Nathaniel Lowe L 0.274/0.348/0.597 5 HR / 15 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Spencer Steer R 0.245/0.325/0.443 5 HR / 10 RBI L30 5 HR
  7. 7. Will Benson L 0.184/0.298/0.388 2 HR / 4 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Jose Trevino R 0.158/0.200/0.211 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Matt McLain R 0.195/0.308/0.293 2 HR / 9 RBI L30 2 HR

CHC projected lineup

  1. 1. Nico Hoerner R 0.301/0.375/0.466 4 HR / 26 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Moisés Ballesteros L 0.317/0.380/0.598 6 HR / 18 RBI L30 6 HR
  3. 3. Alex Bregman R 0.243/0.333/0.353 3 HR / 12 RBI L30 1 HR
  4. 4. Ian Happ S 0.248/0.381/0.512 8 HR / 15 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Seiya Suzuki R 0.308/0.402/0.526 5 HR / 10 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Michael Busch L 0.218/0.317/0.339 2 HR / 17 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Carson Kelly R 0.325/0.417/0.446 2 HR / 13 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Pete Crow-Armstrong L 0.236/0.302/0.354 3 HR / 13 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Dansby Swanson R 0.213/0.338/0.417 6 HR / 24 RBI L30 6 HR

CIN bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

CHC bullpen

  • Riley Martin L fresh 11d rest
MIL @ STL
23:45 UTC · Busch Stadium · division game
STL win probability
33.5%
predicted: 4.1 – 4.8

MIL starter

Chad Patrick RHP
1.71 ERA · 1.14 WHIP · K/9 6.0
last 3: 1.62 ERA over 16.7 IP

STL starter

Kyle Leahy RHP
5.52 ERA · 1.67 WHIP · K/9 6.8
last 3: 5.87 ERA over 15.3 IP

MIL projected lineup

  1. 1. Luis Rengifo S 0.186/0.252/0.268 0 HR / 10 RBI L30 0 HR
  2. 2. William Contreras R 0.298/0.370/0.427 3 HR / 23 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Gary Sánchez R 0.211/0.364/0.479 5 HR / 14 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Jake Bauers L 0.243/0.317/0.423 5 HR / 19 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Garrett Mitchell L 0.231/0.381/0.352 1 HR / 21 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Brandon Lockridge R 0.280/0.359/0.329 0 HR / 10 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Sal Frelick L 0.208/0.305/0.317 3 HR / 9 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. David Hamilton L 0.247/0.351/0.272 0 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Joey Ortiz R 0.181/0.259/0.181 0 HR / 8 RBI L30 0 HR

STL projected lineup

  1. 1. JJ Wetherholt L 0.238/0.353/0.438 7 HR / 16 RBI L30 6 HR
  2. 2. Iván Herrera R 0.250/0.417/0.417 4 HR / 14 RBI L30 4 HR
  3. 3. Jordan Walker R 0.307/0.373/0.591 10 HR / 27 RBI L30 9 HR
  4. 4. Alec Burleson L 0.279/0.361/0.465 5 HR / 28 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Masyn Winn R 0.273/0.352/0.373 1 HR / 13 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. José Fermín R 0.273/0.324/0.424 1 HR / 4 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Nathan Church L 0.247/0.279/0.433 5 HR / 16 RBI L30 5 HR
  8. 8. Pedro Pagés R 0.247/0.291/0.411 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Ramón Urías R 0.158/0.279/0.316 2 HR / 5 RBI L30 1 HR

MIL bullpen

  • Shane Drohan L fresh 4d rest
  • Aaron Ashby L fresh 3d rest
  • DL Hall L fresh 2d rest

STL bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

LAD @ HOU
00:10 UTC · Daikin Park · interleague
HOU win probability
34.1%
predicted: 4.1 – 4.9

LAD starter

Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP
2.87 ERA · 1.01 WHIP · K/9 7.7
last 3: 3.20 ERA over 19.7 IP

HOU starter

TBD

LAD projected lineup

  1. 1. Shohei Ohtani L 0.246/0.382/0.443 6 HR / 13 RBI L30 6 HR
  2. 2. Freddie Freeman L 0.271/0.333/0.419 3 HR / 16 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Teoscar Hernández R 0.250/0.328/0.398 4 HR / 17 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Kyle Tucker L 0.236/0.322/0.362 3 HR / 16 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Max Muncy L 0.300/0.394/0.591 9 HR / 13 RBI L30 8 HR
  6. 6. Dalton Rushing L 0.340/0.421/0.800 7 HR / 17 RBI L30 7 HR
  7. 7. Andy Pages R 0.317/0.363/0.504 5 HR / 27 RBI L30 4 HR
  8. 8. Hyeseong Kim L 0.317/0.382/0.417 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Alex Freeland S 0.232/0.289/0.317 1 HR / 6 RBI L30 0 HR

HOU projected lineup

  1. 1. Carlos Correa R 0.288/0.380/0.432 3 HR / 16 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Yordan Alvarez L 0.326/0.430/0.667 12 HR / 27 RBI L30 9 HR
  3. 3. Isaac Paredes R 0.264/0.357/0.400 3 HR / 15 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Christian Walker R 0.317/0.396/0.579 8 HR / 26 RBI L30 8 HR
  5. 5. Jose Altuve R 0.248/0.338/0.392 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Brice Matthews R 0.221/0.289/0.412 3 HR / 12 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Cam Smith R 0.229/0.316/0.381 4 HR / 17 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Christian Vázquez R 0.333/0.390/0.519 2 HR / 11 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Dustin Harris L 0.233/0.333/0.302 0 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR

LAD bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

HOU bullpen

  • Colton Gordon L fresh 10d rest
  • Ryan Weiss R fresh 6d rest
  • Kai-Wei Teng R fresh 2d rest
CWS @ LAA
01:38 UTC · Angel Stadium
LAA win probability
46.4%
predicted: 4.6 – 4.5

CWS starter

Davis Martin RHP
1.95 ERA · 1.08 WHIP · K/9 8.0
last 3: 1.42 ERA over 19.0 IP

LAA starter

José Soriano RHP
0.84 ERA · 0.94 WHIP · K/9 10.3
last 3: 1.72 ERA over 15.7 IP

CWS projected lineup

  1. 1. Sam Antonacci L 0.255/0.361/0.431 1 HR / 7 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Munetaka Murakami L 0.223/0.362/0.545 13 HR / 26 RBI L30 10 HR
  3. 3. Andrew Benintendi L 0.200/0.241/0.350 2 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Colson Montgomery L 0.227/0.343/0.496 9 HR / 22 RBI L30 8 HR
  5. 5. Chase Meidroth R 0.267/0.346/0.350 1 HR / 3 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. Jarred Kelenic L 0.167/0.286/0.167 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Tristan Peters L 0.284/0.346/0.324 0 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Luisangel Acuña R 0.169/0.235/0.182 0 HR / 3 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Drew Romo S 0.300/0.563/1.200 3 HR / 4 RBI L30 3 HR

LAA projected lineup

  1. 1. Zach Neto R 0.216/0.331/0.381 5 HR / 15 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Mike Trout R 0.258/0.433/0.550 10 HR / 21 RBI L30 8 HR
  3. 3. Nolan Schanuel L 0.248/0.304/0.368 3 HR / 19 RBI L30 1 HR
  4. 4. Jorge Soler R 0.239/0.336/0.469 7 HR / 26 RBI L30 6 HR
  5. 5. Jo Adell R 0.268/0.305/0.366 4 HR / 20 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Josh Lowe L 0.159/0.211/0.307 4 HR / 10 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Vaughn Grissom R 0.298/0.375/0.447 1 HR / 7 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Oswald Peraza R 0.283/0.347/0.467 4 HR / 9 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Sebastián Rivero R 0.500/0.500/0.500 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR

CWS bullpen

  • Jordan Leasure R fresh 6d rest
  • Bryan Hudson L fresh 2d rest
  • Grant Taylor R fresh 2d rest

LAA bullpen

  • Brent Suter L fresh 3d rest
ATL @ SEA
01:40 UTC · T-Mobile Park · interleague
SEA win probability
39.0%
predicted: 4.1 – 4.4

ATL starter

JR Ritchie RHP
2.92 ERA · 1.30 WHIP · K/9 8.0
last 3: 2.92 ERA over 12.3 IP

SEA starter

Logan Gilbert RHP
4.03 ERA · 1.29 WHIP · K/9 9.2
last 3: 3.77 ERA over 14.3 IP

ATL projected lineup

  1. 1. Mauricio Dubón R 0.267/0.328/0.417 2 HR / 18 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Drake Baldwin L 0.315/0.391/0.517 8 HR / 29 RBI L30 5 HR
  3. 3. Ozzie Albies S 0.333/0.384/0.548 7 HR / 22 RBI L30 6 HR
  4. 4. Matt Olson L 0.299/0.380/0.650 11 HR / 31 RBI L30 10 HR
  5. 5. Austin Riley R 0.205/0.284/0.341 4 HR / 21 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Eli White R 0.220/0.245/0.400 2 HR / 9 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Jonah Heim S 0.231/0.311/0.410 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Jorge Mateo R 0.286/0.318/0.476 2 HR / 5 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. José Azocar R 0.000/0.000/0.000 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR

SEA projected lineup

  1. 1. Rob Refsnyder R 0.122/0.196/0.268 2 HR / 3 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Julio Rodríguez R 0.268/0.336/0.406 4 HR / 16 RBI L30 4 HR
  3. 3. Josh Naylor L 0.216/0.283/0.328 4 HR / 17 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Randy Arozarena R 0.272/0.363/0.432 3 HR / 12 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. J.P. Crawford L 0.204/0.357/0.301 2 HR / 7 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Cole Young L 0.266/0.333/0.387 3 HR / 19 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Connor Joe R 0.211/0.286/0.421 1 HR / 3 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Jhonny Pereda R 0.000/0.000/0.000 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Leo Rivas S 0.146/0.276/0.183 0 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR

ATL bullpen

  • José Suarez L fresh 4d rest
  • Didier Fuentes R fresh 3d rest

SEA bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

SD @ SF
01:45 UTC · Oracle Park · division game
SF win probability
38.9%
predicted: 3.8 – 4.2

SD starter

Randy Vásquez RHP
2.94 ERA · 1.16 WHIP · K/9 9.1
last 3: 5.06 ERA over 16.0 IP

SF starter

TBD

SD projected lineup

  1. 1. Ramón Laureano R 0.237/0.303/0.407 4 HR / 18 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Miguel Andujar R 0.316/0.349/0.494 2 HR / 9 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Jackson Merrill L 0.211/0.276/0.333 3 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Manny Machado R 0.229/0.338/0.404 5 HR / 18 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Xander Bogaerts R 0.269/0.351/0.412 5 HR / 18 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Ty France R 0.283/0.321/0.528 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Nick Castellanos R 0.164/0.215/0.279 1 HR / 9 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Freddy Fermin R 0.170/0.292/0.245 0 HR / 3 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Jake Cronenworth L 0.147/0.270/0.200 1 HR / 4 RBI L30 1 HR

SF projected lineup

  1. 1. Heliot Ramos R 0.270/0.308/0.410 3 HR / 15 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Rafael Devers L 0.214/0.257/0.305 2 HR / 12 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Casey Schmitt R 0.308/0.354/0.519 4 HR / 15 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Luis Arraez L 0.308/0.333/0.377 0 HR / 11 RBI L30 0 HR
  5. 5. Matt Chapman R 0.246/0.324/0.331 1 HR / 12 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. Willy Adames R 0.195/0.236/0.346 3 HR / 6 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Jung Hoo Lee L 0.281/0.331/0.413 2 HR / 11 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Jerar Encarnacion R 0.176/0.200/0.206 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Eric Haase R 0.300/0.300/0.500 0 HR / 1 RBI L30 0 HR

SD bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

SF bullpen

Bullpen data not yet available.

How to read these cards

Win probability. Generated by the hierarchical Bayesian model that runs at 07:47 UTC every morning — Poisson likelihood on runs scored, with each team's offence and defence estimated and partially pooled within league. The likelihood is recency-weighted, so a game today counts roughly fully and a game four years ago counts about 7%. The percentage shown is derived from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the matchup. Same model that drives the League Predictions tab.

Starting pitcher. Throwing hand (RHP / LHP), season ERA / WHIP / strikeouts-per-nine, plus the same ERA over the pitcher's last three starts. The recent-form number is deliberately separate from the season figure so a pitcher running hot or cold against his season trend is visible without hunting for splits.

Projected lineup. Today's actual lineup card isn't posted by the team until ~3 hours pre-game, so the warehouse can't see it yet. The lineup shown is a proxy: for each batting-order slot 1–9, the most recent player to occupy that slot for the team. Right alongside each name: handedness (L / R / S), season AVG/OBP/SLG, season HR / RBI, and a last-30-day HR count to show recent form. The L30 figure is a recent split, not a season total — Murakami's "L30 10 HR" sits next to "13 HR" season because 10 of his 13 home runs came in the last 30 days.

Bullpen. Each reliever tagged fresh / taxed / unavailable based on a simple workload heuristic — pitched yesterday with more than 60 pitches in the last three days reads as unavailable, pitched yesterday or yesterday-and-25-plus-pitches reads as taxed, two-plus days of rest reads as fresh. Plus throwing hand and days since last appearance. Sorted fresh first.

Methodology details and the full model spec are on the Methodology tab. The data layer is rebuilt daily from the warehouse repo's gold tables (feat_pitcher_form, feat_batter_form, feat_pitcher_workload) — see README on the GitHub repo for the dbt source.