Warehouse fresh · 2026-07-02 08:24 UTC
Model R̂ max 1.000
ESS min 1501
Divergences 0
Trained 2026-07-02 08:51 UTC

Today's Games

Today's games grouped by series. Each card shows the games already played, tonight's pitcher / projected lineup / bullpen detail, any remaining games, and the model's distribution over the final series outcome. Per-game probabilities reflect the starting-pitcher matchup and can differ night-to-night across a series.

CWS @ CLE
Progressive Field · 4-game series
Series opens tonight CLE take series: 32% · expected CLE wins 2.01 of 4

Tonight — Game 1 of 4 · 22:40 UTC

CLE win probability tonight
46.2%

CWS starter

Davis Martin RHP
3.00 ERA · 1.18 WHIP · K/9 8.7
last 3: 6.14 ERA over 14.7 IP

CLE starter

Slade Cecconi RHP
4.18 ERA · 1.36 WHIP · K/9 7.0
last 3: 1.53 ERA over 17.7 IP

CWS projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Antonacci L LvR 0.328/0.421/0.486 5 HR / 23 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Vargas R RvR 0.217/0.327/0.421 19 HR / 52 RBI L30 6 HR
  3. 3. Benintendi L LvR 0.251/0.307/0.469 10 HR / 40 RBI L30 6 HR
  4. 4. Montgomery S S 0.241/0.328/0.444 2 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  5. 5. Gonzalez L LvR 0.266/0.329/0.406 2 HR / 17 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Meidroth R RvR 0.252/0.331/0.338 6 HR / 27 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Peters L LvR 0.305/0.364/0.472 4 HR / 30 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Acuña R RvR 0.232/0.289/0.280 1 HR / 10 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Romo S S 0.138/0.205/0.325 5 HR / 11 RBI L30 0 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

CLE projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Fry R RvR 0.273/0.333/0.477 5 HR / 12 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. DeLauter L LvR 0.226/0.310/0.390 7 HR / 38 RBI L30 0 HR
  3. 3. Hoskins R RvR 0.205/0.336/0.378 7 HR / 29 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Manzardo L LvR 0.221/0.304/0.405 10 HR / 29 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Rocchio S S 0.286/0.364/0.392 5 HR / 34 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Arias R RvR 0.227/0.261/0.477 3 HR / 6 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Watson L LvR 0.314/0.333/0.457 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Hedges R RvR 0.276/0.344/0.379 2 HR / 12 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Schneemann L LvR 0.210/0.275/0.323 6 HR / 27 RBI L30 2 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

CWS late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.021 (9 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Grant Taylor R +0.024 3d
  • Bryan Hudson L +0.022 4d
  • Brandon Eisert L +0.017 1d

CLE late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (7 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Shawn Armstrong R +0.000 2d
  • Connor Brogdon R +0.000 56d
  • Austin Hedges R +0.000? 25d

late-inning edge: CWS +0.021 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

CWS bullpen

  • Lucas Sims R fresh 71d rest
  • Luisangel Acuña R fresh 16d rest
  • Sean Newcomb L fresh 5d rest
  • Jordan Hicks R fresh 4d rest
  • Bryan Hudson L fresh 4d rest
  • Seranthony Domínguez R fresh 4d rest
  • Trevor Richards R fresh 4d rest
  • Grant Taylor R fresh 3d rest

CLE bullpen

  • Connor Brogdon R fresh 56d rest
  • Austin Hedges R fresh 25d rest
  • Hunter Gaddis R fresh 5d rest
  • Cade Smith R fresh 4d rest
  • Tim Herrin L fresh 4d rest
  • Shawn Armstrong R fresh 2d rest
  • Daniel Espino R fresh 2d rest
  • Matt Festa R taxed 1d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Fri Jul 3 Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams 52% CLE
  • Game 3 Sat Jul 4 Sean Burke vs Parker Messick 56% CLE
  • Game 4 Sun Jul 5 Erick Fedde vs Tanner Bibee 47% CLE

Projected series outcome

  • Split 2–2 38%
  • CLE 3–1 25%
  • CWS 3–1 25%
  • CLE 4–0 6%
  • CWS 4–0 6%
MIA @ COL
Coors Field · 4-game series
Series 2–1 MIA leads COL take series: 0% · expected COL wins 1.40 of 4

Series so far

  • Game 1 Mon Jun 29 MIA 10 – 7 COL MIA ✓
  • Game 2 Tue Jun 30 MIA 14 – 3 COL MIA ✓
  • Game 3 Wed Jul 1 MIA 3 – 6 COL COL ✓

Tonight — Game 4 of 4 · 19:10 UTC

COL win probability tonight
40.5%

MIA starter

Ryan Gusto RHP
4.42 ERA · 1.53 WHIP · K/9 7.8
last 3: 4.38 ERA over 12.3 IP

COL starter

Michael Lorenzen RHP
6.92 ERA · 1.81 WHIP · K/9 7.4
last 3: 3.94 ERA over 16.0 IP

MIA projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Lopez R RvR 0.297/0.339/0.430 7 HR / 37 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Ruiz R RvR 0.262/0.354/0.405 4 HR / 9 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Hicks L LvR 0.298/0.373/0.514 13 HR / 53 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Hernández R RvR 0.217/0.297/0.358 8 HR / 29 RBI L30 6 HR
  5. 5. Sanoja R RvR 0.274/0.317/0.393 3 HR / 34 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Stowers L LvR 0.242/0.332/0.452 8 HR / 34 RBI L30 5 HR
  7. 7. Jiménez R RvR 0.271/0.379/0.313 0 HR / 4 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Navarreto R RvR 0.000/0.250/0.000 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Caissie L LvR 0.240/0.299/0.464 10 HR / 46 RBI L30 5 HR

6 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

COL projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. McCarthy L LvR 0.273/0.322/0.476 6 HR / 37 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Moniak L LvR 0.293/0.344/0.646 14 HR / 35 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Goodman R RvR 0.231/0.298/0.546 27 HR / 50 RBI L30 14 HR
  4. 4. Rumfield L LvR 0.298/0.386/0.530 12 HR / 45 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Castro S S 0.237/0.321/0.376 6 HR / 33 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Freeman R RvR 0.288/0.382/0.364 3 HR / 22 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Johnston L LvR 0.340/0.413/0.467 3 HR / 36 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Karros R RvR 0.237/0.348/0.395 6 HR / 26 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Tovar R RvR 0.205/0.243/0.338 6 HR / 27 RBI L30 2 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

MIA late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.036 (10 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Tyler Phillips R +0.054 4d
  • Lake Bachar R +0.053 2d
  • Javier Sanoja R +0.000? 32d

COL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.008 (11 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Zach Agnos R +0.010 3d
  • Jimmy Herget R +0.009 5d
  • Juan Mejia R +0.005 4d

late-inning edge: MIA +0.028 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

MIA bullpen

  • Javier Sanoja R fresh 32d rest
  • John King L fresh 5d rest
  • Tyler Zuber R fresh 5d rest
  • Tyler Phillips R fresh 4d rest
  • Calvin Faucher R fresh 3d rest
  • Michael Petersen R fresh 3d rest
  • Pete Fairbanks R fresh 3d rest
  • Lake Bachar R fresh 2d rest

COL bullpen

  • Valente Bellozo R fresh 81d rest
  • Keegan Thompson R fresh 25d rest
  • Jimmy Herget R fresh 5d rest
  • Juan Mejia R fresh 4d rest
  • Brennan Bernardino L fresh 4d rest
  • Victor Vodnik R fresh 3d rest
  • Zach Agnos R fresh 3d rest
  • Antonio Senzatela R fresh 3d rest

Projected series outcome

  • MIA 3–1 60%
  • Split 2–2 40%
TB @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · 3-game series
Series 2–0 TB leads KC take series: 0% · expected KC wins 0.45 of 3

Series so far

  • Game 1 Tue Jun 30 TB 10 – 4 KC TB ✓
  • Game 2 Wed Jul 1 TB 4 – 0 KC TB ✓

Tonight — Game 3 of 3 · 23:40 UTC

KC win probability tonight
45.4%

TB starter

Ian Seymour LHP
4.09 ERA · 1.00 WHIP · K/9 9.0
last 3: 4.09 ERA over 11.0 IP

KC starter

Stephen Kolek RHP
4.15 ERA · 1.19 WHIP · K/9 5.9
last 3: 6.43 ERA over 14.0 IP

TB projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Díaz R RvR 0.336/0.421/0.509 12 HR / 53 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Aranda L LvR 0.307/0.411/0.537 13 HR / 58 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Caminero R RvR 0.290/0.364/0.580 24 HR / 54 RBI L30 11 HR
  4. 4. Mesa Jr. L LvR 0.211/0.308/0.386 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  5. 5. Simpson L LvR 0.300/0.349/0.360 0 HR / 16 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. Mullins L LvR 0.205/0.277/0.378 9 HR / 27 RBI L30 6 HR
  7. 7. Walls S S 0.250/0.352/0.331 0 HR / 19 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Palacios L LvR 0.221/0.328/0.295 1 HR / 21 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Feduccia L LvR 0.221/0.313/0.302 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 0 HR

2 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

KC projected lineup vs LHP

  1. 1. Thomas R RvL 0.239/0.352/0.318 5 HR / 23 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Witt Jr. R RvL 0.347/0.412/0.560 12 HR / 36 RBI L30 3 HR
  3. 3. Caglianone L LvL 0.265/0.299/0.482 14 HR / 30 RBI L30 9 HR
  4. 4. Marte R RvL 0.278/0.341/0.306 1 HR / 7 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Perez R RvL 0.259/0.312/0.424 10 HR / 30 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Jensen L LvL 0.297/0.350/0.432 12 HR / 46 RBI L30 5 HR
  7. 7. Loftin R RvL 0.258/0.350/0.409 3 HR / 24 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Tolbert R RvL 0.182/0.250/0.182 0 HR / 1 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Massey L LvL 0.256/0.289/0.395 7 HR / 27 RBI L30 3 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (L-on-L).

TB late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.018 (9 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Ian Seymour L +0.031 7d
  • Casey Legumina R +0.016 5d
  • Cole Sulser R +0.007 1d

KC late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.019 (10 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Luinder Avila R +0.055 4d
  • John Schreiber R +0.000 5d
  • Daniel Lynch IV L +0.000 5d

late-inning edge: wash · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

TB bullpen

  • Ben Williamson R fresh 9d rest
  • Ian Seymour L fresh 7d rest
  • Casey Legumina R fresh 5d rest
  • Bryan Baker R fresh 5d rest
  • Kevin Kelly R fresh 5d rest
  • Trevor Martin R fresh 4d rest
  • Garrett Cleavinger L fresh 4d rest
  • Cam Booser L fresh 2d rest

KC bullpen

  • Bailey Falter L fresh 37d rest
  • Tyler Tolbert R fresh 6d rest
  • Daniel Lynch IV L fresh 5d rest
  • John Schreiber R fresh 5d rest
  • Matt Strahm L fresh 4d rest
  • Alex Lange R fresh 4d rest
  • Luinder Avila R fresh 4d rest
  • Lucas Erceg R fresh 2d rest

Projected series outcome

  • TB 3–0 55%
  • TB 2–1 45%
SD @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 4-game series
Series opens tonight LAD take series: 48% · expected LAD wins 2.41 of 4

Tonight — Game 1 of 4 · 02:10 UTC

LAD win probability tonight
53.6%

SD starter

Randy Vásquez RHP
4.17 ERA · 1.40 WHIP · K/9 6.8
last 3: 8.76 ERA over 12.3 IP

LAD starter

Roki Sasaki RHP
4.88 ERA · 1.33 WHIP · K/9 9.0
last 3: 8.36 ERA over 14.0 IP

SD projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Tatis Jr. R RvR 0.273/0.333/0.346 5 HR / 33 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Sheets L LvR 0.242/0.333/0.510 14 HR / 38 RBI L30 5 HR
  3. 3. Machado R RvR 0.173/0.263/0.367 16 HR / 46 RBI L30 6 HR
  4. 4. France R RvR 0.235/0.300/0.496 10 HR / 30 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Merrill L LvR 0.189/0.258/0.317 8 HR / 31 RBI L30 3 HR
  6. 6. Bogaerts R RvR 0.230/0.326/0.340 8 HR / 32 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Cronenworth L LvR 0.159/0.296/0.220 1 HR / 4 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Durán R RvR 0.151/0.211/0.377 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Song L LvR 0.259/0.365/0.370 1 HR / 9 RBI L30 1 HR

5 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

LAD projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Ohtani L LvR 0.304/0.432/0.551 18 HR / 50 RBI L30 8 HR
  2. 2. Pages R RvR 0.275/0.326/0.478 16 HR / 60 RBI L30 3 HR
  3. 3. Freeman L LvR 0.314/0.405/0.550 14 HR / 47 RBI L30 6 HR
  4. 4. Muncy L LvR 0.261/0.359/0.488 17 HR / 37 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Tucker L LvR 0.241/0.344/0.373 7 HR / 44 RBI L30 3 HR
  6. 6. Edman S S 0.370/0.433/0.481 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Freeland S S 0.245/0.333/0.344 3 HR / 17 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Rojas R RvR 0.220/0.259/0.240 3 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Robinson R RvR 0.133/0.133/0.133 0 HR / 1 RBI L30 0 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

SD late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.011 (8 fresh, 8 avail)
  • Bradgley Rodriguez R +0.032 3d
  • Mason Miller R +0.000 3d
  • Adrian Morejon L +0.000 3d

LAD late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.010 (8 fresh, 9 avail)
  • Will Klein R +0.029 4d
  • Kyle Hurt R +0.000 3d
  • Charlie Barnes L +0.000? 47d

late-inning edge: wash · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

SD bullpen

  • Rodolfo Durán R fresh 5d rest
  • Yuki Matsui L fresh 4d rest
  • Jason Adam R fresh 3d rest
  • Bradgley Rodriguez R fresh 3d rest
  • Adrian Morejon L fresh 3d rest
  • Mason Miller R fresh 3d rest
  • Ron Marinaccio R fresh 2d rest
  • Wandy Peralta L fresh 2d rest

LAD bullpen

  • Charlie Barnes L fresh 47d rest
  • Miguel Rojas R fresh 5d rest
  • Tanner Scott L fresh 4d rest
  • Will Klein R fresh 4d rest
  • Edgardo Henriquez R fresh 4d rest
  • Alex Vesia L fresh 4d rest
  • Kyle Hurt R fresh 3d rest
  • Brock Stewart R fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Fri Jul 3 Michael King vs Shohei Ohtani 64% LAD
  • Game 3 Sat Jul 4 Griffin Canning vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 68% LAD
  • Game 4 Sun Jul 5 JP Sears vs Emmet Sheehan 55% LAD

Projected series outcome

  • LAD 3–1 35%
  • Split 2–2 35%
  • SD 3–1 15%
  • LAD 4–0 13%
  • SD 4–0 2%
LAA @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · 3-game series
Series 2–0 SEA leads SEA take series: 100% · expected SEA wins 2.56 of 3

Series so far

  • Game 1 Mon Jun 29 LAA 2 – 6 SEA SEA ✓
  • Game 2 Tue Jun 30 LAA 3 – 8 SEA SEA ✓

Tonight — Game 3 of 3 · 01:40 UTC

SEA win probability tonight
55.7%

LAA starter

Walbert Ureña RHP
3.21 ERA · 1.26 WHIP · K/9 8.6
last 3: 5.51 ERA over 16.3 IP

SEA starter

Bryce Miller RHP
1.77 ERA · 0.69 WHIP · K/9 11.1
last 3: 2.89 ERA over 18.7 IP

LAA projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Neto R RvR 0.227/0.310/0.459 18 HR / 42 RBI L30 8 HR
  2. 2. Grissom R RvR 0.243/0.307/0.417 4 HR / 30 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Schanuel L LvR 0.278/0.344/0.407 6 HR / 31 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Soler R RvR 0.211/0.299/0.428 11 HR / 37 RBI L30 2 HR
  5. 5. Meckler L LvR 0.333/0.404/0.473 2 HR / 15 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. Adell R RvR 0.231/0.275/0.352 11 HR / 45 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Lowe L LvR 0.226/0.271/0.395 6 HR / 18 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. O'Hoppe R RvR 0.206/0.268/0.331 4 HR / 23 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Walton L LvR 0.316/0.349/0.481 3 HR / 12 RBI L30 3 HR

5 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

SEA projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Crawford L LvR 0.213/0.317/0.393 10 HR / 25 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Rodríguez R RvR 0.261/0.313/0.393 14 HR / 40 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Naylor L LvR 0.257/0.323/0.381 8 HR / 34 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Arozarena R RvR 0.290/0.385/0.447 8 HR / 37 RBI L30 2 HR
  5. 5. Raleigh S S 0.178/0.281/0.356 8 HR / 23 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Young L LvR 0.275/0.340/0.408 9 HR / 41 RBI L30 5 HR
  7. 7. Emerson L LvR 0.244/0.309/0.477 7 HR / 19 RBI L30 5 HR
  8. 8. Robles R RvR 0.220/0.273/0.220 0 HR / 3 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Wilson R RvR 0.200/0.200/0.200 1 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

LAA late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (11 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Chase Silseth R +0.000 2d
  • Alek Manoah R +0.000 47d
  • Shaun Anderson R +0.000 68d

SEA late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (8 fresh, 8 avail)
  • Cole Wilcox R +0.000? 60d
  • Domingo Gonzalez R +0.000? 22d
  • Nick Davila R +0.000? 8d

late-inning edge: wash · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

LAA bullpen

  • Shaun Anderson R fresh 68d rest
  • Joey Lucchesi L fresh 65d rest
  • Alek Manoah R fresh 47d rest
  • Sam Bachman R fresh 5d rest
  • Kirby Yates R fresh 5d rest
  • José Fermin R fresh 4d rest
  • Samy Natera Jr. L fresh 4d rest
  • Mitch Farris L fresh 3d rest

SEA bullpen

  • Cole Wilcox R fresh 60d rest
  • Domingo Gonzalez R fresh 22d rest
  • Nick Davila R fresh 8d rest
  • Gabe Speier L fresh 4d rest
  • José A. Ferrer L fresh 3d rest
  • Andrés Muñoz R fresh 2d rest
  • Michael Rucker R fresh 2d rest
  • Eduard Bazardo R fresh 2d rest

Projected series outcome

  • SEA 3–0 56%
  • SEA 2–1 44%
DET @ TEX
Globe Life Field · 3-game series
Series opens tonight TEX take series: 51% · expected TEX wins 1.53 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 00:05 UTC

TEX win probability tonight
53.8%

DET starter

Framber Valdez LHP
4.05 ERA · 1.33 WHIP · K/9 7.2
last 3: 2.50 ERA over 18.0 IP

TEX starter

Nathan Eovaldi RHP
3.95 ERA · 1.16 WHIP · K/9 9.1
last 3: 2.70 ERA over 20.0 IP

DET projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. McGonigle L LvR 0.293/0.411/0.449 7 HR / 31 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Dingler R RvR 0.284/0.343/0.569 19 HR / 59 RBI L30 8 HR
  3. 3. Carpenter L LvR 0.244/0.310/0.530 13 HR / 36 RBI L30 7 HR
  4. 4. Greene L LvR 0.302/0.373/0.477 11 HR / 38 RBI L30 7 HR
  5. 5. Keith L LvR 0.260/0.303/0.388 5 HR / 18 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Torkelson R RvR 0.201/0.295/0.429 14 HR / 38 RBI L30 6 HR
  7. 7. McKinstry L LvR 0.205/0.276/0.321 3 HR / 16 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Outman L LvR 0.091/0.167/0.273 3 HR / 11 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Rogers R RvR 0.129/0.211/0.226 1 HR / 6 RBI L30 1 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

TEX projected lineup vs LHP

  1. 1. Foscue R RvL 0.357/0.449/0.690 5 HR / 15 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Jung R RvL 0.303/0.410/0.439 9 HR / 32 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Duran R RvL 0.268/0.369/0.375 6 HR / 41 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Burger R RvL 0.258/0.333/0.500 14 HR / 52 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Higashioka R RvL 0.242/0.342/0.455 5 HR / 15 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Cauley R RvL 0.200/0.333/0.600 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Osuna L LvL 0.292/0.346/0.292 0 HR / 14 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Díaz R RvL 0.286/0.286/0.571 3 HR / 15 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Lopez L LvL 0.000/0.000/0.000 1 HR / 8 RBI L30 0 HR

2 of 9 in same-side matchup (L-on-L).

DET late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (6 fresh, 8 avail)
  • Drew Anderson R +0.001 1d
  • Jake Rogers R +0.000? 51d
  • Kenley Jansen R +0.000? 4d

TEX late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.016 (9 fresh, 9 avail)
  • Tyler Alexander L +0.037 3d
  • Jakob Junis R +0.006 3d
  • Jacob Latz L +0.005 2d

late-inning edge: TEX +0.015 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

DET bullpen

  • Jake Rogers R fresh 51d rest
  • Beau Brieske R fresh 21d rest
  • Kenley Jansen R fresh 4d rest
  • Kyle Finnegan R fresh 4d rest
  • Jacob Waguespack R fresh 2d rest
  • Tyler Holton L fresh 2d rest
  • Drew Sommers L taxed 1d rest
  • Drew Anderson R taxed 1d rest

TEX bullpen

  • Gavin Collyer R fresh 32d rest
  • Kyle Higashioka R fresh 16d rest
  • Cal Quantrill R fresh 5d rest
  • Cole Winn R fresh 4d rest
  • Robby Ahlstrom L fresh 3d rest
  • Jakob Junis R fresh 3d rest
  • Tyler Alexander L fresh 3d rest
  • Peyton Gray R fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Sat Jul 4 Jack Flaherty vs Kumar Rocker 52% TEX
  • Game 3 Sun Jul 5 Casey Mize vs TBD 47% TEX

Projected series outcome

  • TEX 2–1 38%
  • DET 2–1 37%
  • TEX 3–0 13%
  • DET 3–0 12%
PIT @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · 4-game series
Series 2–1 PHI leads PHI take series: 60% · expected PHI wins 2.60 of 4

Series so far

  • Game 1 Mon Jun 29 PIT 11 – 7 PHI PIT ✓
  • Game 2 Tue Jun 30 PIT 0 – 8 PHI PHI ✓
  • Game 3 Wed Jul 1 PIT 6 – 10 PHI PHI ✓

Tonight — Game 4 of 4 · 16:35 UTC

PHI win probability tonight
60.1%

PIT starter

Jared Jones RHP
5.76 ERA · 1.44 WHIP · K/9 9.0
last 3: 6.94 ERA over 11.7 IP

PHI starter

TBD

PIT projected lineup

  1. 1. Griffin R 0.269/0.323/0.406 5 HR / 23 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Lowe L 0.240/0.315/0.498 20 HR / 57 RBI L30 6 HR
  3. 3. Reynolds S 0.280/0.395/0.462 11 HR / 53 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Valdez R 0.302/0.373/0.717 6 HR / 12 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. O'Hearn L 0.286/0.342/0.472 13 HR / 51 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Gonzales R 0.300/0.357/0.373 3 HR / 36 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Mangum S 0.302/0.351/0.359 1 HR / 14 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Callihan L 0.237/0.333/0.492 3 HR / 13 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Davis R 0.150/0.241/0.327 7 HR / 20 RBI L30 3 HR

PHI projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Turner R RvR 0.259/0.288/0.414 10 HR / 31 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Schwarber L LvR 0.237/0.352/0.567 30 HR / 55 RBI L30 8 HR
  3. 3. Harper L LvR 0.299/0.404/0.647 20 HR / 56 RBI L30 7 HR
  4. 4. Marsh L LvR 0.341/0.374/0.564 15 HR / 46 RBI L30 10 HR
  5. 5. Bohm R RvR 0.229/0.289/0.346 10 HR / 45 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Stott L LvR 0.230/0.286/0.389 7 HR / 40 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Realmuto R RvR 0.211/0.291/0.362 5 HR / 25 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Rincones Jr. L LvR 0.162/0.205/0.243 1 HR / 3 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Crawford L LvR 0.271/0.317/0.377 2 HR / 19 RBI L30 0 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

PIT late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.021 (7 fresh, 8 avail)
  • Mason Montgomery L +0.062 3d
  • Cam Sanders R +0.000? 32d
  • Gregory Soto L +0.000? 3d

PHI late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (10 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Seth Johnson R +0.000 1d
  • Jonathan Bowlan R +0.000 2d
  • Orion Kerkering R +0.000 4d

late-inning edge: PIT +0.020 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

PIT bullpen

  • Cam Sanders R fresh 32d rest
  • Dennis Santana R fresh 4d rest
  • Mason Montgomery L fresh 3d rest
  • Gregory Soto L fresh 3d rest
  • Evan Sisk L fresh 3d rest
  • Tyler Callihan R fresh 2d rest
  • Isaac Mattson R fresh 2d rest
  • Yohan Ramírez R taxed 1d rest

PHI bullpen

  • Dylan Moore R fresh 78d rest
  • Garrett Stubbs R fresh 15d rest
  • Alan Rangel R fresh 5d rest
  • José Alvarado L fresh 4d rest
  • Orion Kerkering R fresh 4d rest
  • Jhoan Duran R fresh 4d rest
  • Kyle Backhus L fresh 4d rest
  • Tim Mayza L fresh 3d rest

Projected series outcome

  • PHI 3–1 60%
  • Split 2–2 40%
STL @ ATL
Truist Park · 3-game series
Series 1–1 tied ATL take series: 56% · expected ATL wins 1.56 of 3

Series so far

  • Game 1 Tue Jun 30 STL 5 – 3 ATL STL ✓
  • Game 2 Wed Jul 1 STL 1 – 5 ATL ATL ✓

Tonight — Game 3 of 3 · 23:15 UTC

ATL win probability tonight
55.5%

STL starter

Dustin May RHP
4.30 ERA · 1.20 WHIP · K/9 8.3
last 3: 3.18 ERA over 17.0 IP

ATL starter

TBD

STL projected lineup

  1. 1. Wetherholt L 0.259/0.357/0.401 12 HR / 34 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Herrera R 0.252/0.390/0.404 10 HR / 35 RBI L30 3 HR
  3. 3. Burleson L 0.275/0.343/0.468 13 HR / 57 RBI L30 6 HR
  4. 4. Walker R 0.288/0.342/0.509 18 HR / 59 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Nootbaar L 0.293/0.386/0.453 2 HR / 7 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Winn R 0.242/0.315/0.329 3 HR / 32 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Church L 0.255/0.298/0.400 6 HR / 23 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Jordan R 0.222/0.233/0.370 1 HR / 13 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Crooks L 0.151/0.237/0.245 1 HR / 7 RBI L30 1 HR

ATL projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Baldwin L LvR 0.243/0.327/0.421 14 HR / 39 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Albies S S 0.257/0.330/0.400 13 HR / 48 RBI L30 4 HR
  3. 3. Olson L LvR 0.271/0.342/0.542 20 HR / 52 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Harris II L LvR 0.299/0.328/0.506 14 HR / 44 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Dubón R RvR 0.279/0.328/0.430 8 HR / 44 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Smith L LvR 0.297/0.329/0.449 6 HR / 32 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Riley R RvR 0.197/0.273/0.338 8 HR / 38 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Yastrzemski L LvR 0.233/0.318/0.358 4 HR / 19 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Mateo R RvR 0.254/0.306/0.403 4 HR / 11 RBI L30 0 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

STL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (9 fresh, 9 avail)
  • Max Rajcic R +0.000? 6d
  • Justin Bruihl L +0.000? 5d
  • Matt Svanson R +0.000? 5d

ATL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (9 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Dylan Lee L +0.000 4d
  • Ian Hamilton R +0.000 2d
  • Joel Payamps R +0.000? 63d

late-inning edge: wash · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

STL bullpen

  • Jared Shuster L fresh 57d rest
  • Gordon Graceffo R fresh 8d rest
  • Max Rajcic R fresh 6d rest
  • Justin Bruihl L fresh 5d rest
  • Matt Svanson R fresh 5d rest
  • Ryan Fernandez R fresh 2d rest
  • George Soriano R fresh 2d rest
  • Riley O'Brien R fresh 2d rest

ATL bullpen

  • Joel Payamps R fresh 63d rest
  • Jorge Mateo R fresh 45d rest
  • Carlos Carrasco R fresh 9d rest
  • Hurston Waldrep R fresh 6d rest
  • Dylan Lee L fresh 4d rest
  • Didier Fuentes R fresh 4d rest
  • Tyler Kinley R fresh 4d rest
  • James Karinchak R fresh 2d rest

Projected series outcome

  • ATL 2–1 56%
  • STL 2–1 44%
CIN @ MIL
American Family Field · 4-game series
Series 3–0 MIL leads MIL take series: 100% · expected MIL wins 3.61 of 4

Series so far

  • Game 1 Mon Jun 29 CIN 3 – 5 MIL MIL ✓
  • Game 2 Tue Jun 30 CIN 2 – 7 MIL MIL ✓
  • Game 3 Wed Jul 1 CIN 2 – 4 MIL MIL ✓

Tonight — Game 4 of 4 · 18:10 UTC

MIL win probability tonight
60.8%

CIN starter

Chase Burns RHP
2.36 ERA · 1.08 WHIP · K/9 11.0
last 3: 3.38 ERA over 16.0 IP

MIL starter

Jacob Misiorowski RHP
1.45 ERA · 0.77 WHIP · K/9 13.3
last 3: 1.29 ERA over 21.0 IP

CIN projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. De La Cruz S S 0.255/0.333/0.424 13 HR / 40 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Stewart R RvR 0.249/0.325/0.445 16 HR / 59 RBI L30 4 HR
  3. 3. Steer R RvR 0.211/0.279/0.353 13 HR / 34 RBI L30 6 HR
  4. 4. Suárez R RvR 0.196/0.264/0.335 8 HR / 29 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Stephenson R RvR 0.241/0.309/0.395 6 HR / 24 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Marte R RvR 0.216/0.284/0.351 5 HR / 8 RBI L30 5 HR
  7. 7. Johnson S S 0.000/0.000/0.000 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. McLain R RvR 0.190/0.278/0.327 8 HR / 25 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Arroyo S S 0.255/0.328/0.291 0 HR / 4 RBI L30 0 HR

6 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

MIL projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Chourio R RvR 0.284/0.337/0.516 12 HR / 33 RBI L30 10 HR
  2. 2. Turang L LvR 0.290/0.395/0.521 12 HR / 48 RBI L30 5 HR
  3. 3. Contreras R RvR 0.297/0.354/0.423 9 HR / 51 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Bauers L LvR 0.281/0.393/0.541 15 HR / 51 RBI L30 6 HR
  5. 5. Vaughn R RvR 0.280/0.345/0.387 2 HR / 24 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Mitchell L LvR 0.267/0.360/0.465 6 HR / 39 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Sánchez R RvR 0.167/0.316/0.397 8 HR / 22 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Pratt R RvR 0.200/0.333/0.240 0 HR / 2 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Ortiz R RvR 0.209/0.286/0.300 2 HR / 19 RBI L30 1 HR

6 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

CIN late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.000 (11 fresh, 12 avail)
  • Emilio Pagán R +0.000 58d
  • Sam Moll L +0.000 3d
  • Brock Burke L +0.000 4d

MIL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.025 (6 fresh, 8 avail)
  • Chad Patrick R +0.076 2d
  • Abner Uribe R +0.000? 4d
  • Joel Kuhnel R +0.000? 4d

late-inning edge: MIL +0.025 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

CIN bullpen

  • P.J. Higgins R fresh 83d rest
  • Kyle Nicolas R fresh 69d rest
  • Emilio Pagán R fresh 58d rest
  • Jose Trevino R fresh 55d rest
  • Brandon Leibrandt L fresh 31d rest
  • Brock Burke L fresh 4d rest
  • Pierce Johnson R fresh 4d rest
  • Chase Petty R fresh 3d rest

MIL bullpen

  • Jake Woodford R fresh 28d rest
  • Abner Uribe R fresh 4d rest
  • Joel Kuhnel R fresh 4d rest
  • Jared Koenig L fresh 2d rest
  • Grant Anderson R fresh 2d rest
  • Chad Patrick R fresh 2d rest
  • Trevor Megill R taxed 1d rest
  • Aaron Ashby L taxed 1d rest

Projected series outcome

  • MIL 4–0 61%
  • MIL 3–1 39%

How to read these cards

Series framing. MLB schedules in 3- and 4-game series at one venue, and the model treats each game in a series identically until pitcher effects land. So the per-game probability shown for tonight is the same number the model would assign to tomorrow's game — but the series projection compounds those probabilities into a distribution over final outcomes that captures the spread of plausible series scores. That's the more useful read until pitcher specifics differentiate nights.

Win probability. Generated by the hierarchical Bayesian model that runs at 07:47 UTC every morning — Poisson likelihood on runs scored, with each team's offence and defence estimated and partially pooled within league. The likelihood is recency-weighted, so a game today counts roughly fully and a game four years ago counts about 7%. The percentage shown is derived from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the matchup.

Starting pitcher. Throwing hand (RHP / LHP), season ERA / WHIP / strikeouts-per-nine, plus the same ERA over the pitcher's last three starts. The recent-form number is deliberately separate from the season figure so a pitcher running hot or cold against his season trend is visible without hunting for splits.

Projected lineup. Today's actual lineup card isn't posted by the team until ~3 hours pre-game, so the warehouse can't see it yet. The lineup shown is a proxy: for each batting-order slot 1–9, the most recent player to occupy that slot for the team. Right alongside each name: handedness (L / R / S), season AVG/OBP/SLG, season HR / RBI, and a last-30-day HR count to show recent form.

Bullpen. Each reliever tagged fresh / taxed / unavailable based on a simple workload heuristic — pitched yesterday with more than 60 pitches in the last three days reads as unavailable, pitched yesterday or yesterday-and-25-plus-pitches reads as taxed, two-plus days of rest reads as fresh.

Methodology details and the full model spec are on the Methodology tab.