Warehouse fresh · 2026-08-31 15:09 UTC
Model R̂ max 1.010
ESS min 1476
Divergences 0
Trained 2026-08-31 15:37 UTC

Today's Games

Today's games grouped by series. Each card shows the games already played, tonight's pitcher / projected lineup / bullpen detail, any remaining games, and the model's distribution over the final series outcome. Per-game probabilities reflect the starting-pitcher matchup and can differ night-to-night across a series.

NYY @ LAA
Angel Stadium · 3-game series
Series opens tonight LAA take series: 35% · expected LAA wins 1.20 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 01:38 UTC

LAA win probability tonight
47.5%

NYY starter

Elmer Rodríguez RHP
4.70 ERA · 1.52 WHIP · K/9 6.3
last 3: 4.40 ERA over 14.3 IP

LAA starter

Walbert Ureña RHP
2.98 ERA · 1.24 WHIP · K/9 8.6
last 3: 3.68 ERA over 14.7 IP

NYY projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Goldschmidt R RvR 0.202/0.231/0.343 18 HR / 48 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Bellinger L LvR 0.258/0.356/0.418 12 HR / 59 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Ramos R RvR 0.114/0.235/0.205 10 HR / 38 RBI L30 1 HR
  4. 4. García Jr. L LvR 0.309/0.351/0.574 28 HR / 88 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Rosario R RvR 0.294/0.338/0.529 10 HR / 30 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Grisham L LvR 0.203/0.308/0.410 18 HR / 57 RBI L30 7 HR
  7. 7. Caballero R RvR 0.238/0.299/0.385 13 HR / 47 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Chisholm Jr. L LvR 0.231/0.326/0.405 18 HR / 54 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Sánchez R RvR 0.167/0.212/0.167 1 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR

5 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

LAA projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Meckler L LvR 0.304/0.379/0.408 3 HR / 22 RBI L30 1 HR
  2. 2. Trout R RvR 0.230/0.371/0.430 20 HR / 48 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Grissom R RvR 0.230/0.284/0.397 9 HR / 54 RBI L30 2 HR
  4. 4. Ballesteros L LvR 0.135/0.224/0.173 6 HR / 27 RBI L30 0 HR
  5. 5. Moore R RvR 0.115/0.233/0.231 1 HR / 2 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Lowe L LvR 0.219/0.286/0.390 10 HR / 27 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Siri R RvR 0.289/0.333/0.422 7 HR / 23 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Peraza R RvR 0.221/0.275/0.292 7 HR / 24 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Guzman R RvR 0.242/0.271/0.322 6 HR / 24 RBI L30 2 HR

6 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

NYY late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.189 (5 fresh, 6 avail)
  • Brent Headrick L +0.308 2d
  • David Bednar R +0.250 3d
  • Ryan Yarbrough L +0.010 2d

LAA late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.071 (7 fresh, 9 avail)
  • Tayler Saucedo L +0.116 2d
  • Luke Murphy R +0.054 2d
  • Blake Weiman L +0.042 6d

late-inning edge: NYY +0.119 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

NYY bullpen

  • David Bednar R fresh 3d rest
  • Michael Fulmer R fresh 2d rest
  • Ryan Yarbrough L fresh 2d rest
  • Brent Headrick L fresh 2d rest
  • Paul Blackburn R fresh 2d rest
  • Tim Hill L taxed 1d rest

LAA bullpen

  • Mitch Farris L fresh 25d rest
  • Tyler Heineman R fresh 22d rest
  • Blake Weiman L fresh 6d rest
  • Ryan Watson R fresh 3d rest
  • Ben Joyce R fresh 3d rest
  • Tayler Saucedo L fresh 2d rest
  • Luke Murphy R fresh 2d rest
  • José Fermin R taxed 1d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Gerrit Cole vs Grayson Rodriguez 29% LAA
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 Cam Schlittler vs Reid Detmers 43% LAA

Projected series outcome

  • NYY 2–1 44%
  • LAA 2–1 29%
  • NYY 3–0 21%
  • LAA 3–0 6%
PHI @ AZ
Chase Field · 3-game series
Series opens tonight AZ take series: 50% · expected AZ wins 1.49 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 01:40 UTC

AZ win probability tonight
53.5%

PHI starter

Aaron Nola RHP
5.03 ERA · 1.40 WHIP · K/9 9.6
last 3: 2.00 ERA over 18.0 IP

AZ starter

TBD

PHI projected lineup

  1. 1. Schwarber L 0.244/0.359/0.527 40 HR / 82 RBI L30 7 HR
  2. 2. Turner R 0.243/0.295/0.381 17 HR / 51 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Harper L 0.266/0.386/0.503 27 HR / 78 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Bohm R 0.245/0.305/0.381 14 HR / 76 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Sosa R 0.236/0.276/0.402 7 HR / 40 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. De La Cruz R 0.333/0.373/0.511 2 HR / 11 RBI L30 1 HR
  7. 7. Stott L 0.259/0.335/0.404 9 HR / 59 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Realmuto R 0.224/0.299/0.362 10 HR / 45 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Hill R 0.241/0.294/0.420 9 HR / 26 RBI L30 1 HR

AZ projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Vargas S S 0.225/0.279/0.328 9 HR / 66 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Carroll L LvR 0.208/0.309/0.440 19 HR / 61 RBI L30 4 HR
  3. 3. Moreno R RvR 0.308/0.395/0.465 11 HR / 66 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Perdomo S S 0.249/0.363/0.383 9 HR / 47 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Arenado R RvR 0.234/0.310/0.419 21 HR / 65 RBI L30 7 HR
  6. 6. Tawa R RvR 0.254/0.311/0.451 9 HR / 35 RBI L30 5 HR
  7. 7. Fernandez R RvR 0.261/0.303/0.366 3 HR / 16 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Lawlar R RvR 0.237/0.310/0.342 3 HR / 9 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Waldschmidt R RvR 0.247/0.303/0.367 3 HR / 22 RBI L30 2 HR

6 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

PHI late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.205 (9 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Jhoan Duran R +0.400 2d
  • Brooks Raley L +0.118 6d
  • José Alvarado L +0.097 1d

AZ late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.227 (10 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Juan Morillo R +0.273 3d
  • Brandyn Garcia L +0.254 2d
  • Jonathan Loáisiga R +0.154 3d

late-inning edge: AZ +0.022 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

PHI bullpen

  • Lou Trivino III R fresh 56d rest
  • Garrett Stubbs R fresh 52d rest
  • Brian Keller R fresh 37d rest
  • Chase Shugart R fresh 7d rest
  • Orion Kerkering R fresh 6d rest
  • Brooks Raley L fresh 6d rest
  • Tim Mayza L fresh 5d rest
  • Jonathan Bowlan R fresh 2d rest

AZ bullpen

  • Ildemaro Vargas R fresh 14d rest
  • Jonathan Loáisiga R fresh 3d rest
  • Juan Morillo R fresh 3d rest
  • Justin Martinez R fresh 2d rest
  • Brandyn Garcia L fresh 2d rest
  • Taylor Clarke R fresh 2d rest
  • Dennis Santana R fresh 2d rest
  • Gerardo Carrillo R fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Jesús Luzardo vs TBD 42% AZ
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 Andrew Painter vs TBD 54% AZ

Projected series outcome

  • PHI 2–1 38%
  • AZ 2–1 38%
  • PHI 3–0 12%
  • AZ 3–0 12%
SEA @ BOS
Fenway Park · 3-game series
Series opens tonight BOS take series: 66% · expected BOS wins 1.82 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 22:45 UTC

BOS win probability tonight
61.8%

SEA starter

George Kirby RHP
4.02 ERA · 1.33 WHIP · K/9 7.7
last 3: 6.89 ERA over 15.7 IP

BOS starter

Payton Tolle LHP
3.09 ERA · 1.09 WHIP · K/9 10.1
last 3: 2.45 ERA over 18.3 IP

SEA projected lineup vs LHP

  1. 1. Arozarena R RvL 0.283/0.363/0.480 20 HR / 58 RBI L30 7 HR
  2. 2. Canzone L LvL 0.250/0.393/0.444 20 HR / 59 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Rodríguez R RvL 0.217/0.296/0.406 20 HR / 56 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Raleigh S S 0.151/0.264/0.294 19 HR / 53 RBI L30 8 HR
  5. 5. Naylor L LvL 0.296/0.339/0.396 10 HR / 47 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Ward R RvL 0.069/0.156/0.138 7 HR / 34 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Young L LvL 0.233/0.291/0.314 16 HR / 57 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Crawford L LvL 0.207/0.355/0.253 10 HR / 30 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Rodden S S 0.200/0.200/0.200 0 HR / 3 RBI L30 0 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (L-on-L).

BOS projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Anthony L LvR 0.221/0.368/0.351 1 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR
  2. 2. Rafaela R RvR 0.285/0.319/0.430 16 HR / 67 RBI L30 5 HR
  3. 3. Abreu L LvR 0.234/0.310/0.448 23 HR / 70 RBI L30 7 HR
  4. 4. Contreras R RvR 0.276/0.376/0.508 26 HR / 79 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Rutschman S S 0.175/0.283/0.275 9 HR / 51 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Durbin R RvR 0.253/0.326/0.394 12 HR / 62 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Duran L LvR 0.202/0.252/0.380 18 HR / 66 RBI L30 5 HR
  8. 8. Story R RvR 0.210/0.244/0.323 3 HR / 19 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Sogard S S 0.243/0.362/0.330 3 HR / 13 RBI L30 3 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

SEA late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.097 (12 fresh, 13 avail)
  • Andrés Muñoz R +0.139 6d
  • Carlos Vargas R +0.103 2d
  • Michael Rucker R +0.050 3d

BOS late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.152 (9 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Aroldis Chapman L +0.225 7d
  • Tyron Guerrero R +0.215 2d
  • Seth Martinez R +0.017 20d

late-inning edge: BOS +0.055 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

SEA bullpen

  • Domingo Gonzalez R fresh 82d rest
  • Victor Robles R fresh 25d rest
  • Nick Davila R fresh 13d rest
  • Jhonathan Díaz L fresh 11d rest
  • Jhonny Pereda R fresh 8d rest
  • Weston Wilson R fresh 8d rest
  • Andrés Muñoz R fresh 6d rest
  • Gabe Speier L fresh 5d rest

BOS bullpen

  • Joe La Sorsa L fresh 85d rest
  • Tommy Kahnle R fresh 62d rest
  • Seth Martinez R fresh 20d rest
  • Aroldis Chapman L fresh 7d rest
  • Erik Miller L fresh 6d rest
  • Brayan Bello R fresh 2d rest
  • Garrett Whitlock R fresh 2d rest
  • Tyron Guerrero R fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Bryan Woo vs TBD 59% BOS
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 TBD vs Patrick Sandoval 61% BOS

Projected series outcome

  • BOS 2–1 43%
  • SEA 2–1 28%
  • BOS 3–0 22%
  • SEA 3–0 6%
MIL @ CHC
Wrigley Field · 4-game series
Series opens tonight CHC take series: 23% · expected CHC wins 1.78 of 4

Tonight — Game 1 of 4 · 23:40 UTC

CHC win probability tonight
52.4%

MIL starter

Kyle Harrison LHP
2.79 ERA · 1.12 WHIP · K/9 11.1
last 3: 2.45 ERA over 14.7 IP

CHC starter

Clay Holmes RHP
2.26 ERA · 1.06 WHIP · K/9 6.5
last 3: 0.47 ERA over 19.0 IP

MIL projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Turang L LvR 0.282/0.379/0.500 17 HR / 78 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Mitchell L LvR 0.259/0.352/0.422 9 HR / 55 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Bauers L LvR 0.268/0.385/0.482 23 HR / 76 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Chourio R RvR 0.274/0.327/0.468 20 HR / 57 RBI L30 7 HR
  5. 5. Yelich L LvR 0.246/0.332/0.392 9 HR / 47 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Sánchez R RvR 0.178/0.338/0.402 11 HR / 34 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Frelick L LvR 0.260/0.326/0.363 4 HR / 36 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Hamilton L LvR 0.237/0.314/0.332 4 HR / 24 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Ortiz R RvR 0.259/0.321/0.394 7 HR / 38 RBI L30 2 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

CHC projected lineup vs LHP

  1. 1. Crow-Armstrong L LvL 0.314/0.414/0.580 38 HR / 91 RBI L30 14 HR
  2. 2. Suzuki R RvL 0.308/0.411/0.547 23 HR / 79 RBI L30 5 HR
  3. 3. Busch L LvL 0.232/0.337/0.404 17 HR / 68 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Bregman R RvL 0.262/0.383/0.421 20 HR / 73 RBI L30 9 HR
  5. 5. Happ S S 0.157/0.233/0.289 23 HR / 61 RBI L30 5 HR
  6. 6. Hoerner R RvL 0.273/0.315/0.381 7 HR / 61 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Ramírez S S 0.355/0.412/0.516 4 HR / 24 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Conforto L LvL 0.429/0.500/1.286 12 HR / 34 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Amaya R RvL 0.273/0.385/0.364 5 HR / 22 RBI L30 2 HR

3 of 9 in same-side matchup (L-on-L).

MIL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.028 (11 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Chad Patrick R +0.074 2d
  • Gary Sánchez R +0.011 13d
  • DL Hall L +0.001 3d

CHC late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.032 (7 fresh, 8 avail)
  • Jacob Webb R +0.039 6d
  • Yacksel Ríos R +0.032 127d
  • Daniel Palencia R +0.024 3d

late-inning edge: wash · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

MIL bullpen

  • Carlos Rodriguez R fresh 93d rest
  • Andrew Vaughn R fresh 33d rest
  • Lyon Richardson R fresh 21d rest
  • Gary Sánchez R fresh 13d rest
  • Grant Anderson R fresh 5d rest
  • Bryse Wilson R fresh 5d rest
  • Aaron Ashby L fresh 3d rest
  • DL Hall L fresh 3d rest

CHC bullpen

  • Yacksel Ríos R fresh 127d rest
  • Carson Kelly R fresh 8d rest
  • Caleb Thielbar L fresh 7d rest
  • Jacob Webb R fresh 6d rest
  • Daniel Palencia R fresh 3d rest
  • Ryan Rolison L fresh 2d rest
  • Ryan Zeferjahn R fresh 2d rest
  • Trent Thornton R taxed 1d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Robert Gasser vs Matthew Boyd 54% CHC
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 Jacob Misiorowski vs David Peterson 34% CHC
  • Game 4 Thu Sep 3 Logan Henderson vs Kevin Gausman 37% CHC

Projected series outcome

  • Split 2–2 37%
  • MIL 3–1 30%
  • CHC 3–1 20%
  • MIL 4–0 9%
  • CHC 4–0 4%
SD @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · 3-game series
Series opens tonight CIN take series: 37% · expected CIN wins 1.24 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 22:40 UTC

CIN win probability tonight
42.7%

SD starter

Michael King RHP
3.23 ERA · 1.17 WHIP · K/9 7.8
last 3: 2.29 ERA over 19.7 IP

CIN starter

Brady Singer RHP
4.72 ERA · 1.42 WHIP · K/9 7.3
last 3: 5.09 ERA over 17.7 IP

SD projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Tatis Jr. R RvR 0.277/0.339/0.400 17 HR / 67 RBI L30 9 HR
  2. 2. Cronenworth L LvR 0.216/0.307/0.295 4 HR / 26 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Machado R RvR 0.210/0.304/0.398 24 HR / 74 RBI L30 1 HR
  4. 4. France R RvR 0.291/0.357/0.524 19 HR / 59 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Merrill L LvR 0.221/0.284/0.420 22 HR / 69 RBI L30 7 HR
  6. 6. Bogaerts R RvR 0.218/0.319/0.334 11 HR / 49 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Harris L LvR 0.273/0.467/0.364 0 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Fermin R RvR 0.205/0.285/0.301 4 HR / 17 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Song L LvR 0.206/0.315/0.271 1 HR / 16 RBI L30 0 HR

5 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

CIN projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Myers R RvR 0.238/0.333/0.294 6 HR / 22 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. De La Cruz S S 0.249/0.332/0.423 21 HR / 60 RBI L30 3 HR
  3. 3. Stewart R RvR 0.259/0.322/0.479 31 HR / 105 RBI L30 9 HR
  4. 4. Stephenson R RvR 0.263/0.320/0.464 14 HR / 49 RBI L30 6 HR
  5. 5. Suárez R RvR 0.216/0.294/0.429 20 HR / 59 RBI L30 6 HR
  6. 6. Bleday L LvR 0.225/0.344/0.449 21 HR / 52 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. McLain R RvR 0.180/0.269/0.331 13 HR / 35 RBI L30 5 HR
  8. 8. Rodríguez L LvR 0.240/0.333/0.460 4 HR / 9 RBI L30 4 HR
  9. 9. Arroyo S S 0.220/0.278/0.240 0 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR

5 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

SD late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.024 (4 fresh, 8 avail)
  • Bradgley Rodriguez R +0.066 1d
  • Griffin Canning R +0.007 3d
  • Mason Miller R +0.000 6d

CIN late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.021 (7 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Luis Mey R +0.064 1d
  • Tejay Antone R +0.000 3d
  • Brock Burke L +0.000 1d

late-inning edge: wash · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

SD bullpen

  • Mason Miller R fresh 6d rest
  • Wandy Peralta L fresh 3d rest
  • Griffin Canning R fresh 3d rest
  • Kyle Hart L fresh 2d rest
  • Bradgley Rodriguez R taxed 1d rest
  • Adrian Morejon L taxed 1d rest
  • David Morgan R taxed 1d rest
  • Yuki Matsui L taxed 1d rest

CIN bullpen

  • Kyle Nicolas R fresh 129d rest
  • Tejay Antone R fresh 3d rest
  • Pierce Johnson R fresh 2d rest
  • Jose Trevino R fresh 2d rest
  • Julian Garcia R fresh 2d rest
  • Sam Moll L fresh 2d rest
  • Tony Santillan R fresh 2d rest
  • Brock Burke L taxed 1d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Randy Vásquez vs Nick Lodolo 37% CIN
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 Casey Mize vs Rhett Lowder 44% CIN

Projected series outcome

  • SD 2–1 43%
  • CIN 2–1 30%
  • SD 3–0 20%
  • CIN 3–0 7%
BAL @ COL
Coors Field · 3-game series
Series opens tonight COL take series: 47% · expected COL wins 1.45 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 00:40 UTC

COL win probability tonight
42.4%

BAL starter

TBD

COL starter

Tanner Gordon RHP
5.60 ERA · 1.61 WHIP · K/9 6.1
last 3: 3.63 ERA over 17.3 IP

BAL projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Alexander R RvR 0.331/0.390/0.483 4 HR / 29 RBI L30 0 HR
  2. 2. Alonso R RvR 0.275/0.374/0.527 32 HR / 91 RBI L30 10 HR
  3. 3. Henderson L LvR 0.220/0.309/0.386 22 HR / 57 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Mayo R RvR 0.156/0.225/0.265 19 HR / 55 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Encarnacion-Strand R RvR 0.234/0.259/0.377 7 HR / 28 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Taveras S S 0.234/0.306/0.414 8 HR / 52 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Franklin R RvR 0.143/0.333/0.143 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Narváez R RvR 0.100/0.206/0.133 3 HR / 10 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Cowser L LvR 0.237/0.329/0.411 13 HR / 36 RBI L30 5 HR

6 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

COL projected lineup

  1. 1. McCarthy L 0.290/0.331/0.476 14 HR / 70 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Norby R 0.226/0.331/0.362 6 HR / 26 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Goodman R 0.254/0.320/0.542 36 HR / 73 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Rumfield L 0.289/0.380/0.437 13 HR / 61 RBI L30 0 HR
  5. 5. Castro S 0.260/0.332/0.418 15 HR / 56 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Moniak L 0.253/0.295/0.509 21 HR / 60 RBI L30 4 HR
  7. 7. Johnston L 0.288/0.358/0.405 4 HR / 47 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Sullivan L 0.231/0.277/0.419 7 HR / 29 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Ritter R 0.176/0.222/0.176 0 HR / 1 RBI L30 0 HR

BAL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.188 (11 fresh, 12 avail)
  • Yennier Cano R +0.250 1d
  • Alex Hoppe R +0.166 2d
  • Grant Wolfram L +0.149 5d

COL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.084 (13 fresh, 13 avail)
  • Nick Frasso R +0.103 2d
  • Jordan Romano R +0.083 2d
  • Mark Manfredi L +0.067 3d

late-inning edge: BAL +0.104 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

BAL bullpen

  • Jose Espada R fresh 123d rest
  • Dietrich Enns L fresh 98d rest
  • Chadwick Tromp R fresh 34d rest
  • Albert Suárez R fresh 11d rest
  • Grant Wolfram L fresh 5d rest
  • Josh Walker L fresh 5d rest
  • Anthony Nunez R fresh 4d rest
  • Rico Garcia R fresh 2d rest

COL bullpen

  • Valente Bellozo R fresh 141d rest
  • Parker Mushinski L fresh 13d rest
  • Brett Sullivan R fresh 10d rest
  • Troy Johnston L fresh 7d rest
  • Tanner Gordon R fresh 5d rest
  • Juan Mejia R fresh 3d rest
  • Mark Manfredi L fresh 3d rest
  • Jaden Hill R fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 TBD vs Gabriel Hughes 46% COL
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 TBD vs Tomoyuki Sugano 56% COL

Projected series outcome

  • BAL 2–1 39%
  • COL 2–1 36%
  • BAL 3–0 14%
  • COL 3–0 11%
CWS @ HOU
Daikin Park · 4-game series
Series opens tonight HOU take series: 34% · expected HOU wins 2.08 of 4

Tonight — Game 1 of 4 · 00:10 UTC

HOU win probability tonight
42.5%

CWS starter

Anthony Kay LHP
4.10 ERA · 1.34 WHIP · K/9 7.7
last 3: 5.06 ERA over 16.0 IP

HOU starter

Peter Lambert RHP
3.66 ERA · 1.23 WHIP · K/9 8.8
last 3: 8.16 ERA over 14.3 IP

CWS projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Antonacci L LvR 0.278/0.373/0.427 8 HR / 40 RBI L30 0 HR
  2. 2. Murakami L LvR 0.232/0.366/0.548 29 HR / 58 RBI L30 6 HR
  3. 3. Vargas R RvR 0.236/0.345/0.450 29 HR / 76 RBI L30 7 HR
  4. 4. Benintendi L LvR 0.252/0.315/0.457 14 HR / 69 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Montgomery S S 0.257/0.345/0.391 5 HR / 35 RBI L30 2 HR
  6. 6. Montgomery L LvR 0.189/0.268/0.392 28 HR / 76 RBI L30 4 HR
  7. 7. Peters L LvR 0.297/0.357/0.498 12 HR / 52 RBI L30 6 HR
  8. 8. Doyle R RvR 0.200/0.200/0.200 3 HR / 12 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Romo S S 0.148/0.223/0.296 7 HR / 16 RBI L30 2 HR

2 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

HOU projected lineup vs LHP

  1. 1. Peña R RvL 0.260/0.333/0.397 17 HR / 46 RBI L30 5 HR
  2. 2. Alvarez L LvL 0.265/0.335/0.500 37 HR / 93 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Paredes R RvL 0.284/0.349/0.405 17 HR / 73 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Altuve R RvL 0.265/0.351/0.388 14 HR / 41 RBI L30 2 HR
  5. 5. Walker R RvL 0.230/0.355/0.450 24 HR / 75 RBI L30 3 HR
  6. 6. Varsho L LvL 0.217/0.280/0.261 10 HR / 36 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Diaz R RvL 0.254/0.303/0.352 10 HR / 33 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Smith R RvL 0.202/0.282/0.413 17 HR / 48 RBI L30 4 HR
  9. 9. Allen R RvL 0.375/0.400/0.594 2 HR / 13 RBI L30 1 HR

2 of 9 in same-side matchup (L-on-L).

CWS late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.079 (10 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Erick Fedde R +0.085 2d
  • Bryan Hudson L +0.081 2d
  • Sean Newcomb L +0.072 2d

HOU late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.126 (9 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Josh Hader L +0.303 1d
  • Enyel De Los Santos R +0.075 2d
  • AJ Blubaugh R -0.000 4d

late-inning edge: HOU +0.047 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

CWS bullpen

  • Tyler Gilbert L fresh 83d rest
  • Tyler Davis R fresh 52d rest
  • Luisangel Acuña R fresh 7d rest
  • Trevor Richards R fresh 7d rest
  • José Urquidy R fresh 7d rest
  • Grant Taylor R fresh 3d rest
  • Hagen Smith L fresh 3d rest
  • Sean Newcomb L fresh 2d rest

HOU bullpen

  • Roddery Muñoz R fresh 150d rest
  • Christian Roa R fresh 137d rest
  • Ryan Weiss R fresh 119d rest
  • LaMonte Wade Jr. L fresh 11d rest
  • AJ Blubaugh R fresh 4d rest
  • Steven Okert L fresh 4d rest
  • Kai-Wei Teng R fresh 2d rest
  • Bennett Sousa L fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Sean Burke vs TBD 47% HOU
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 TBD vs Hayden Wesneski 57% HOU
  • Game 4 Thu Sep 3 Luis Castillo vs Hunter Brown 62% HOU

Projected series outcome

  • Split 2–2 38%
  • HOU 3–1 27%
  • CWS 3–1 23%
  • HOU 4–0 7%
  • CWS 4–0 5%
MIA @ WSH
Nationals Park · 4-game series
Series 2–1 WSH leads WSH take series: 47% · expected WSH wins 2.47 of 4

Series so far

  • Game 1 Fri Aug 28 MIA 2 – 9 WSH WSH ✓
  • Game 2 Sat Aug 29 MIA 4 – 5 WSH WSH ✓
  • Game 3 Sun Aug 30 MIA 6 – 2 WSH MIA ✓

Tonight — Game 4 of 4 · 22:45 UTC

WSH win probability tonight
47.2%

MIA starter

Ryan Gusto RHP
4.00 ERA · 1.41 WHIP · K/9 7.3
last 3: 1.26 ERA over 14.3 IP

WSH starter

TBD

MIA projected lineup

  1. 1. Hernández R 0.232/0.312/0.467 22 HR / 58 RBI L30 6 HR
  2. 2. Lopez R 0.305/0.340/0.444 10 HR / 61 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Ramírez R 0.233/0.333/0.331 2 HR / 17 RBI L30 0 HR
  4. 4. Ruiz R 0.238/0.364/0.421 6 HR / 11 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Edwards S 0.282/0.361/0.376 6 HR / 51 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. Sanoja R 0.278/0.319/0.417 6 HR / 51 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Jiménez R 0.204/0.312/0.265 2 HR / 14 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Marsee L 0.208/0.329/0.321 8 HR / 31 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Navarreto R 0.108/0.190/0.216 1 HR / 2 RBI L30 1 HR

WSH projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Abrams L LvR 0.278/0.369/0.538 29 HR / 92 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Ortiz L LvR 0.234/0.272/0.468 5 HR / 10 RBI L30 5 HR
  3. 3. Chaparro R RvR 0.333/0.396/0.667 9 HR / 33 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Lile L LvR 0.260/0.312/0.471 18 HR / 76 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Crews R RvR 0.192/0.255/0.304 10 HR / 34 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Vivas L LvR 0.242/0.341/0.339 3 HR / 25 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Ford R RvR 0.111/0.238/0.306 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Young R RvR 0.225/0.288/0.365 10 HR / 43 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Nuñez S S 0.211/0.281/0.239 1 HR / 35 RBI L30 0 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

MIA late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.069 (8 fresh, 9 avail)
  • Michael Petersen R +0.108 1d
  • Jack Ralston R +0.055 2d
  • Dax Fulton L +0.044 5d

WSH late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.041 (10 fresh, 12 avail)
  • Brad Lord R +0.060 2d
  • Erik Tolman L +0.034 2d
  • Will Dion L +0.029 5d

late-inning edge: MIA +0.028 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

MIA bullpen

  • Javier Sanoja R fresh 18d rest
  • Tyler Phillips R fresh 6d rest
  • Calvin Faucher R fresh 6d rest
  • Dax Fulton L fresh 5d rest
  • Victor Vodnik R fresh 5d rest
  • Tyler Zuber R fresh 3d rest
  • Jack Ralston R fresh 2d rest
  • Josh Ekness R fresh 2d rest

WSH bullpen

  • Justin Lawrence R fresh 50d rest
  • Matt Krook L fresh 36d rest
  • Matt Waldron R fresh 5d rest
  • Will Dion L fresh 5d rest
  • Luis Perales R fresh 5d rest
  • Jorbit Vivas R fresh 5d rest
  • Clayton Beeter R fresh 4d rest
  • Brad Lord R fresh 2d rest

Projected series outcome

  • Split 2–2 53%
  • WSH 3–1 47%
NYM @ TB
Tropicana Field · 3-game series
Series opens tonight TB take series: 51% · expected TB wins 1.53 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 22:40 UTC

TB win probability tonight
52.8%

NYM starter

Robert Stock RHP
7.40 ERA · 1.94 WHIP · K/9 9.2
last 3: 5.68 ERA over 12.7 IP

TB starter

Ian Seymour LHP
4.53 ERA · 1.18 WHIP · K/9 12.4
last 3: 3.71 ERA over 17.0 IP

NYM projected lineup vs LHP

  1. 1. Lindor S S 0.207/0.305/0.413 14 HR / 34 RBI L30 6 HR
  2. 2. Soto L LvL 0.274/0.358/0.443 22 HR / 54 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. Bichette R RvL 0.264/0.323/0.436 14 HR / 66 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Benge L LvL 0.264/0.326/0.411 16 HR / 54 RBI L30 5 HR
  5. 5. Young L LvL 0.222/0.286/0.289 8 HR / 35 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. Robert Jr. R RvL 0.214/0.290/0.429 10 HR / 23 RBI L30 6 HR
  7. 7. Ewing L LvL 0.250/0.324/0.391 7 HR / 28 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Semien R RvL 0.238/0.322/0.362 14 HR / 43 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Torrens R RvL 0.254/0.324/0.478 8 HR / 33 RBI L30 6 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (L-on-L).

TB projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Díaz R RvR 0.308/0.377/0.461 20 HR / 75 RBI L30 5 HR
  2. 2. Aranda L LvR 0.294/0.374/0.469 17 HR / 79 RBI L30 3 HR
  3. 3. Caminero R RvR 0.278/0.349/0.544 37 HR / 87 RBI L30 8 HR
  4. 4. Vilade R RvR 0.237/0.314/0.421 11 HR / 37 RBI L30 2 HR
  5. 5. Simpson L LvR 0.324/0.361/0.373 0 HR / 30 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. DeLuca R RvR 0.270/0.300/0.466 9 HR / 42 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Mateo R RvR 0.188/0.222/0.375 5 HR / 16 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Fortes R RvR 0.275/0.301/0.391 4 HR / 29 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Walls S S 0.235/0.328/0.309 2 HR / 32 RBI L30 2 HR

6 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

NYM late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.090 (10 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Nate Lavender L +0.140 3d
  • Daniel Duarte R +0.124 2d
  • Kevin Herget R +0.005 30d

TB late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.113 (7 fresh, 9 avail)
  • Kevin Kelly R +0.152 2d
  • Casey Legumina R +0.111 6d
  • Cam Booser L +0.076 8d

late-inning edge: TB +0.023 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

NYM bullpen

  • Guillo Zuñiga R fresh 56d rest
  • Matt Seelinger R fresh 55d rest
  • Kevin Herget R fresh 30d rest
  • Luis Torrens R fresh 23d rest
  • Jefry Yan L fresh 5d rest
  • Austin Warren R fresh 4d rest
  • Dedniel Núñez R fresh 3d rest
  • Nate Lavender L fresh 3d rest

TB bullpen

  • Cam Booser L fresh 8d rest
  • Casey Legumina R fresh 6d rest
  • Ian Seymour L fresh 6d rest
  • Tyler Wells R fresh 5d rest
  • Steven Matz L fresh 3d rest
  • Garrett Cleavinger L fresh 2d rest
  • Kevin Kelly R fresh 2d rest
  • Bryan Baker R taxed 1d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Sean Manaea vs Freddy Peralta 53% TB
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 Christian Scott vs TBD 47% TB

Projected series outcome

  • TB 2–1 38%
  • NYM 2–1 37%
  • TB 3–0 13%
  • NYM 3–0 12%
ATH @ TEX
Globe Life Field · 3-game series
Series opens tonight TEX take series: 60% · expected TEX wins 1.70 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 00:05 UTC

TEX win probability tonight
60.4%

ATH starter

Gage Jump LHP
4.69 ERA · 1.46 WHIP · K/9 9.9
last 3: 5.74 ERA over 15.7 IP

TEX starter

Jacob deGrom RHP
4.21 ERA · 1.18 WHIP · K/9 11.0
last 3: 7.71 ERA over 11.7 IP

ATH projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Bolte R RvR 0.276/0.358/0.340 6 HR / 26 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. McNeil L LvR 0.278/0.322/0.388 6 HR / 47 RBI L30 2 HR
  3. 3. Gelof R RvR 0.252/0.326/0.454 14 HR / 38 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Butler L LvR 0.234/0.334/0.372 12 HR / 45 RBI L30 6 HR
  5. 5. Walton L LvR 0.243/0.418/0.371 4 HR / 20 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. White R RvR 0.228/0.242/0.348 2 HR / 8 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Cortes L LvR 0.249/0.323/0.394 8 HR / 38 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Serven R RvR 0.269/0.296/0.615 5 HR / 14 RBI L30 4 HR
  9. 9. Williams R RvR 0.233/0.260/0.356 2 HR / 12 RBI L30 0 HR

5 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

TEX projected lineup vs LHP

  1. 1. Pederson L LvL 0.129/0.229/0.387 24 HR / 49 RBI L30 5 HR
  2. 2. Seager L LvL 0.241/0.333/0.391 13 HR / 34 RBI L30 3 HR
  3. 3. Langford R RvL 0.248/0.331/0.419 15 HR / 36 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Nimmo L LvL 0.311/0.354/0.483 14 HR / 51 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Duran R RvL 0.282/0.385/0.436 15 HR / 73 RBI L30 3 HR
  6. 6. Burger R RvL 0.271/0.338/0.542 23 HR / 77 RBI L30 4 HR
  7. 7. Carter L LvL 0.123/0.194/0.123 8 HR / 32 RBI L30 0 HR
  8. 8. Freeman R RvL 0.308/0.400/0.500 1 HR / 4 RBI L30 1 HR
  9. 9. Díaz R RvL 0.250/0.294/0.688 6 HR / 23 RBI L30 2 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (L-on-L).

ATH late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.007 (10 fresh, 12 avail)
  • Brady Basso L +0.014 1d
  • Luis Medina R +0.005 2d
  • José Suarez L +0.003 2d

TEX late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.022 (9 fresh, 12 avail)
  • Tyler Alexander L +0.042 1d
  • Nicky Lopez R +0.017 31d
  • Peyton Gray R +0.006 2d

late-inning edge: TEX +0.014 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

ATH bullpen

  • Geoff Hartlieb R fresh 36d rest
  • Ben Bowden L fresh 29d rest
  • Carlos Cortes S fresh 24d rest
  • Kade Morris R fresh 7d rest
  • Hogan Harris L fresh 3d rest
  • Jack Perkins R fresh 2d rest
  • Chris Roycroft R fresh 2d rest
  • Elvis Alvarado R fresh 2d rest

TEX bullpen

  • Joe Ross R fresh 65d rest
  • Luis Curvelo R fresh 31d rest
  • Nicky Lopez R fresh 31d rest
  • Jacob Latz L fresh 8d rest
  • Cole Winn R fresh 6d rest
  • Jordan Montgomery L fresh 6d rest
  • Chase Silseth R fresh 3d rest
  • Cal Quantrill R fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 J.T. Ginn vs MacKenzie Gore 47% TEX
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 Jacob Lopez vs Cody Bradford 62% TEX

Projected series outcome

  • TEX 2–1 42%
  • ATH 2–1 32%
  • TEX 3–0 18%
  • ATH 3–0 8%
DET @ MIN
Target Field · 3-game series
Series opens tonight MIN take series: 31% · expected MIN wins 1.12 of 3

Tonight — Game 1 of 3 · 23:40 UTC

MIN win probability tonight
45.6%

DET starter

Jackson Jobe RHP
3.93 ERA · 1.42 WHIP · K/9 7.4
last 3: 5.40 ERA over 13.3 IP

MIN starter

Taj Bradley RHP
3.97 ERA · 1.28 WHIP · K/9 10.3
last 3: 5.74 ERA over 15.7 IP

DET projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Torres R RvR 0.284/0.359/0.390 8 HR / 36 RBI L30 3 HR
  2. 2. Keith L LvR 0.269/0.331/0.425 9 HR / 32 RBI L30 1 HR
  3. 3. McGonigle L LvR 0.294/0.401/0.455 14 HR / 58 RBI L30 5 HR
  4. 4. Dingler R RvR 0.267/0.338/0.531 26 HR / 82 RBI L30 4 HR
  5. 5. Callahan L LvR 0.259/0.276/0.481 1 HR / 6 RBI L30 1 HR
  6. 6. McKinstry L LvR 0.226/0.305/0.347 4 HR / 26 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Lee R RvR 0.279/0.333/0.442 7 HR / 33 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Clark L LvR 0.215/0.261/0.323 2 HR / 13 RBI L30 2 HR
  9. 9. Báez R RvR 0.250/0.280/0.339 2 HR / 14 RBI L30 0 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

MIN projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Keaschall R RvR 0.275/0.364/0.407 9 HR / 41 RBI L30 5 HR
  2. 2. Lee S S 0.267/0.312/0.498 22 HR / 73 RBI L30 7 HR
  3. 3. Clemens L LvR 0.235/0.296/0.471 22 HR / 67 RBI L30 3 HR
  4. 4. Jeffers R RvR 0.256/0.341/0.469 10 HR / 42 RBI L30 1 HR
  5. 5. Bell S S 0.245/0.318/0.418 17 HR / 83 RBI L30 4 HR
  6. 6. Larnach L LvR 0.278/0.359/0.437 11 HR / 45 RBI L30 3 HR
  7. 7. Lewis R RvR 0.223/0.290/0.379 13 HR / 46 RBI L30 3 HR
  8. 8. Culpepper R RvR 0.324/0.390/0.486 3 HR / 6 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Jenkins L LvR 0.333/0.333/0.500 0 HR / 1 RBI L30 0 HR

4 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

DET late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.085 (8 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Drew Sommers L +0.219 3d
  • Drew Anderson R +0.018 3d
  • Tyler Holton L +0.017 2d

MIN late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.014 (9 fresh, 9 avail)
  • A.J. Minter L +0.024 2d
  • Taylor Rogers L +0.016 3d
  • Kody Funderburk L +0.003 3d

late-inning edge: DET +0.071 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

DET bullpen

  • Zach McKinstry R fresh 41d rest
  • Tanner Rainey R fresh 7d rest
  • Kyle Finnegan R fresh 5d rest
  • Drew Anderson R fresh 3d rest
  • Drew Sommers L fresh 3d rest
  • Tyler Holton L fresh 2d rest
  • Andrew Sears L fresh 2d rest
  • Kenley Jansen R fresh 2d rest

MIN bullpen

  • Alex Jackson R fresh 42d rest
  • Tommy Nance R fresh 7d rest
  • Jeff Hoffman R fresh 5d rest
  • Travis Adams R fresh 3d rest
  • Kody Funderburk L fresh 3d rest
  • Taylor Rogers L fresh 3d rest
  • Yoendrys Gómez R fresh 2d rest
  • A.J. Minter L fresh 2d rest

Coming up

  • Game 2 Tue Sep 1 Troy Melton vs Connor Prielipp 26% MIN
  • Game 3 Wed Sep 2 Drew Anderson vs Dean Kremer 40% MIN

Projected series outcome

  • DET 2–1 45%
  • MIN 2–1 26%
  • DET 3–0 24%
  • MIN 3–0 5%
SF @ ATL
Truist Park · 1-game series
Series opens tonight ATL take series: 58% · expected ATL wins 0.58 of 1

Tonight — Game 1 of 1 · 22:05 UTC

ATL win probability tonight
58.0%

SF starter

TBD

ATL starter

Bryce Elder RHP
3.95 ERA · 1.24 WHIP · K/9 7.4
last 3: 5.82 ERA over 17.0 IP

SF projected lineup vs RHP

  1. 1. Gilbert L LvR 0.270/0.362/0.440 8 HR / 36 RBI L30 4 HR
  2. 2. Devers L LvR 0.290/0.369/0.585 29 HR / 78 RBI L30 7 HR
  3. 3. Eldridge L LvR 0.247/0.352/0.430 15 HR / 42 RBI L30 4 HR
  4. 4. Hoo Lee L LvR 0.302/0.347/0.446 9 HR / 49 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Hill L LvR 0.241/0.324/0.379 0 HR / 6 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. Cavanaugh L LvR 0.244/0.340/0.256 0 HR / 7 RBI L30 0 HR
  7. 7. Whitcomb R RvR 0.053/0.053/0.211 3 HR / 8 RBI L30 1 HR
  8. 8. Furman L LvR 0.063/0.211/0.063 0 HR / 0 RBI L30 0 HR
  9. 9. Koss R RvR 0.207/0.270/0.256 1 HR / 4 RBI L30 1 HR

2 of 9 in same-side matchup (R-on-R).

ATL projected lineup

  1. 1. Baldwin L 0.277/0.356/0.453 22 HR / 67 RBI L30 2 HR
  2. 2. Acuña Jr. R 0.241/0.346/0.411 13 HR / 36 RBI L30 5 HR
  3. 3. Olson L 0.258/0.334/0.527 37 HR / 79 RBI L30 9 HR
  4. 4. Harris II L 0.295/0.322/0.496 22 HR / 77 RBI L30 3 HR
  5. 5. Dubón R 0.270/0.315/0.390 10 HR / 64 RBI L30 0 HR
  6. 6. Albies S 0.254/0.310/0.413 20 HR / 67 RBI L30 2 HR
  7. 7. Murphy R 0.218/0.246/0.382 2 HR / 4 RBI L30 2 HR
  8. 8. Riley R 0.220/0.294/0.361 15 HR / 61 RBI L30 3 HR
  9. 9. Kim R 0.081/0.177/0.081 0 HR / 5 RBI L30 0 HR

SF late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.079 (10 fresh, 10 avail)
  • Trent Harris R +0.125 2d
  • Dylan Smith R +0.081 2d
  • Jason Foley R +0.032 2d

ATL late-inning stack

top-3 q +0.038 (8 fresh, 11 avail)
  • Raisel Iglesias R +0.106 1d
  • Brent Suter L +0.005 2d
  • Danny Young L +0.001 16d

late-inning edge: SF +0.042 · top-3 q = avg posterior pitcher_quality of each team's three best fresh-or-taxed relievers

SF bullpen

  • Wilkin Ramos R fresh 88d rest
  • Anthony Molina R fresh 6d rest
  • Braxton Roxby R fresh 3d rest
  • Blade Tidwell R fresh 3d rest
  • Reiver Sanmartin L fresh 2d rest
  • Jason Foley R fresh 2d rest
  • Carson Seymour R fresh 2d rest
  • Trent Harris R fresh 2d rest

ATL bullpen

  • Joel Payamps R fresh 123d rest
  • Ian Hamilton R fresh 60d rest
  • Elieser Hernández R fresh 31d rest
  • Danny Young L fresh 16d rest
  • Dylan Lee L fresh 5d rest
  • Ray Kerr L fresh 3d rest
  • Brent Suter L fresh 2d rest
  • Didier Fuentes R fresh 2d rest

Projected series outcome

  • ATL 1–0 58%
  • SF 1–0 42%

How to read these cards

Series framing. MLB schedules in 3- and 4-game series at one venue, and the model treats each game in a series identically until pitcher effects land. So the per-game probability shown for tonight is the same number the model would assign to tomorrow's game — but the series projection compounds those probabilities into a distribution over final outcomes that captures the spread of plausible series scores. That's the more useful read until pitcher specifics differentiate nights.

Win probability. Generated by the hierarchical Bayesian model that runs at 07:47 UTC every morning — Poisson likelihood on runs scored, with each team's offence and defence estimated and partially pooled within league. The likelihood is recency-weighted, so a game today counts roughly fully and a game four years ago counts about 7%. The percentage shown is derived from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the matchup.

Starting pitcher. Throwing hand (RHP / LHP), season ERA / WHIP / strikeouts-per-nine, plus the same ERA over the pitcher's last three starts. The recent-form number is deliberately separate from the season figure so a pitcher running hot or cold against his season trend is visible without hunting for splits.

Projected lineup. Today's actual lineup card isn't posted by the team until ~3 hours pre-game, so the warehouse can't see it yet. The lineup shown is a proxy: for each batting-order slot 1–9, the most recent player to occupy that slot for the team. Right alongside each name: handedness (L / R / S), season AVG/OBP/SLG, season HR / RBI, and a last-30-day HR count to show recent form.

Bullpen. Each reliever tagged fresh / taxed / unavailable based on a simple workload heuristic — pitched yesterday with more than 60 pitches in the last three days reads as unavailable, pitched yesterday or yesterday-and-25-plus-pitches reads as taxed, two-plus days of rest reads as fresh.

Methodology details and the full model spec are on the Methodology tab.