Warehouse fresh · 2026-08-31 15:09 UTC
Model R̂ max 1.010
ESS min 1476
Divergences 0
Trained 2026-08-31 15:37 UTC

2026 League Predictions

Hierarchical Bayesian team-strength model, updated daily. Each row shows the team's current record, projected final win total, 80% credible interval from 10,000 Monte Carlo seasons, and the probability of winning the division or making the playoffs.

ALAmerican League

Projected final standings · 2026 regular season

AL West

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
HOU Houston Astros 69-68 81 78–84
61.6%
68.8%
TEX Texas Rangers 67-70 80 76–83
32.0%
30.9%
SEA Seattle Mariners 64-73 77 73–80
6.4%
6.2%
ATH Athletics 53-84 64 61–67
0.0%
0.0%
LAA Los Angeles Angels 52-85 63 60–66
0.0%
0.0%

AL East

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
TB Tampa Bay Rays 82-54 95 92–98
73.9%
100.0%
NYY New York Yankees 78-59 93 89–96
25.2%
100.0%
BOS Boston Red Sox 74-63 88 85–91
0.9%
99.1%
TOR Toronto Blue Jays 68-70 80 77–83
0.0%
19.6%
BAL Baltimore Orioles 68-68 80 77–83
0.0%
26.2%

AL Central

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
CWS Chicago White Sox 72-64 85 82–88
76.7%
87.9%
CLE Cleveland Guardians 69-68 82 79–85
22.2%
57.7%
DET Detroit Tigers 62-73 77 73–80
0.7%
2.6%
MIN Minnesota Twins 65-72 76 73–79
0.3%
0.9%
KC Kansas City Royals 62-76 74 70–77
0.0%
0.1%

NLNational League

Projected final standings · 2026 regular season

NL West

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers 82-55 97 94–100
99.8%
100.0%
SD San Diego Padres 72-65 85 82–88
0.1%
48.0%
AZ Arizona Diamondbacks 73-65 85 82–88
0.0%
55.0%
SF San Francisco Giants 56-81 68 64–71
0.0%
0.0%
COL Colorado Rockies 52-85 63 60–66
0.0%
0.0%

NL East

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
ATL Atlanta Braves 82-55 95 92–98
91.9%
100.0%
PHI Philadelphia Phillies 76-60 90 86–93
8.1%
94.2%
MIA Miami Marlins 69-68 81 78–84
0.0%
3.1%
WSH Washington Nationals 65-74 76 73–79
0.0%
0.0%
NYM New York Mets 61-76 73 70–76
0.0%
0.0%

NL Central

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
MIL Milwaukee Brewers 85-52 99 96–103
99.1%
100.0%
CHC Chicago Cubs 77-60 90 87–93
0.9%
97.4%
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates 67-71 80 77–83
0.0%
1.3%
STL St. Louis Cardinals 68-69 80 77–83
0.0%
0.9%
CIN Cincinnati Reds 65-72 75 72–78
0.0%
0.0%