Warehouse fresh · 2026-05-04 08:09 UTC
Model R̂ max 1.010
ESS min 644
Divergences 0
Trained 2026-05-04 08:48 UTC

2026 League Predictions

Hierarchical Bayesian team-strength model, updated daily. Each row shows the team's current record, projected final win total, 80% credible interval from 10,000 Monte Carlo seasons, and the probability of winning the division or making the playoffs.

ALAmerican League

Projected final standings · 2026 regular season

AL West

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
SEA Seattle Mariners 16-19 85 78–92
42.5%
67.8%
TEX Texas Rangers 16-18 85 78–92
42.9%
64.7%
HOU Houston Astros 14-21 80 73–87
13.3%
31.9%
ATH Athletics 18-16 73 66–80
1.2%
4.3%
LAA Los Angeles Angels 13-22 66 59–73
0.0%
0.2%

AL East

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
NYY New York Yankees 23-11 99 92–106
89.1%
99.8%
TB Tampa Bay Rays 21-12 89 81–96
9.3%
84.6%
TOR Toronto Blue Jays 16-18 82 75–89
1.0%
41.3%
BOS Boston Red Sox 13-21 80 73–87
0.6%
30.0%
BAL Baltimore Orioles 15-19 75 68–82
0.0%
7.4%

AL Central

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
CLE Cleveland Guardians 18-17 85 78–92
44.9%
68.8%
DET Detroit Tigers 17-17 85 78–92
42.9%
66.9%
KC Kansas City Royals 15-19 79 71–86
8.8%
22.7%
MIN Minnesota Twins 15-20 75 68–82
3.3%
9.0%
CWS Chicago White Sox 16-18 67 60–74
0.2%
0.4%

NLNational League

Projected final standings · 2026 regular season

NL West

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers 21-13 100 93–107
90.5%
99.6%
SD San Diego Padres 20-13 89 82–96
8.7%
78.7%
AZ Arizona Diamondbacks 16-17 81 74–89
0.7%
25.8%
SF San Francisco Giants 13-21 76 69–83
0.1%
5.9%
COL Colorado Rockies 14-21 55 48–61
0.0%
0.0%

NL East

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
ATL Atlanta Braves 25-10 96 89–103
93.0%
97.8%
PHI Philadelphia Phillies 14-20 84 77–91
6.2%
41.1%
NYM New York Mets 12-22 76 69–83
0.7%
6.6%
MIA Miami Marlins 16-18 72 65–79
0.0%
1.4%
WSH Washington Nationals 16-19 67 60–74
0.0%
0.1%

NL Central

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
CHC Chicago Cubs 22-12 96 89–103
58.7%
97.4%
MIL Milwaukee Brewers 18-15 94 87–101
39.8%
94.9%
STL St. Louis Cardinals 20-13 80 73–87
0.6%
19.4%
CIN Cincinnati Reds 20-14 80 73–87
0.6%
18.2%
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates 19-16 79 72–86
0.3%
13.1%