2026 Playoff Predictions

Twelve clubs left. The same Bayesian team-strength model that ran the regular season now plays the real bracket 20,000 times: best-of-three Wild Card Series at the higher seed, best-of-five Division Series, best-of-seven Championship and World Series, each with its real home-field pattern. Games already played count, games with announced starters use them, and it updates every morning.

BracketThe road to the World Series

Seed · club · series wins · chance to win the series

AL Wild Card

AL Division

ALCS

World Series

NLCS

NL Division

NL Wild Card

Best of 3 · final

4 NYY 2

5 BOS 0

Best of 3 · final

2 CWS 2

3 HOU 0

Best of 5 · final

1 TB 3

4 NYY 0

Best of 5 · final

2 CWS 2

6 CLE 3

Best of 7 · final

1 TB 4

6 CLE 2

Best of 7 · final

1 MIL 4

1 TB 1

Most likely champion

MIL100.0%

TB0.0%

CWS0.0%

HOU0.0%

Best of 7 · final

1 MIL 4

2 LAD 0

Best of 5 · final

1 MIL 3

4 SD 1

Best of 5 · final

2 LAD 3

3 ATL 1

Best of 3 · final

4 SD 2

5 CHC 0

Best of 3 · final

3 ATL 2

6 PHI 1

Where a slot is still open, it lists the clubs most likely to fill it and the chance each gets there. Byes go to the top two seeds in each league.

ALAmerican League

Chance of reaching each round · seeded by regular-season finish

Seed	Team	Record	2026 form	Division Series	AL Championship	World Series	Win it all
1 bye	TB Tampa Bay Rays	98-64	+0.50	Through	Through	Through	Out
2	CWS Chicago White Sox	84-78	+0.24	Through	Out	Out	Out
3	HOU Houston Astros	81-81	-0.43	Out	Out	Out	Out
4	NYY New York Yankees	93-68	+0.85	Through	Out	Out	Out
5	BOS Boston Red Sox	87-75	+0.37	Out	Out	Out	Out
6 bye	CLE Cleveland Guardians	85-77	+0.00	Through	Through	Out	Out

NLNational League

Chance of reaching each round · seeded by regular-season finish

Seed	Team	Record	2026 form	Division Series	NL Championship	World Series	Win it all
1 bye	MIL Milwaukee Brewers	103-59	+1.43	Through	Through	Through	Through
2 bye	LAD Los Angeles Dodgers	100-62	+1.17	Through	Through	Out	Out
3	ATL Atlanta Braves	94-68	+0.76	Through	Out	Out	Out
4	SD San Diego Padres	91-71	+0.36	Through	Out	Out	Out
5	CHC Chicago Cubs	89-73	+0.90	Out	Out	Out	Out
6	PHI Philadelphia Phillies	87-74	+0.12	Out	Out	Out	Out

MLBWorld Series champion

All twelve clubs, most likely first

MIL Milwaukee Brewers	Through
TB Tampa Bay Rays	Out
CWS Chicago White Sox	Out
HOU Houston Astros	Out
NYY New York Yankees	Out
BOS Boston Red Sox	Out
CLE Cleveland Guardians	Out
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers	Out
ATL Atlanta Braves	Out
SD San Diego Padres	Out
CHC Chicago Cubs	Out
PHI Philadelphia Phillies	Out

How to read this

Each game's win probability comes from the model's offence and defence ratings, the home park, each side's recent form and, once announced, the starting pitchers. Short series are close to coin flips even between unequal teams, so the odds here are flatter than the gap in talent: that is baseball in October, not caution in the model.

2026 form is this season's run differential per game, adjusted for the strength of schedule, where 0 is an average club. It is the order on the Team Strength tab.

The final regular-season projection is saved as it stood: 2026 regular season →